Posted on
3/5/2008 2:38:50 PM
NBA Lock Alert – Indiana Pacers at Houston Rockets
By Eric Williams
While the Indiana Pacers, (24-36 SU, 28-32 ATS, 31-26-3 O/U), have managed to win just four of their last ten games, the Pacers have picked up two consecutive wins heading into tonight’s matchup against the league’s hottest team, the Houston Rockets, (39-20 SU, 34-24-1 ATS, 24-34-1 O/U), winners of 15 straight games and 19 of their last 20.
The Pacers routed the lowly Milwaukee Bucks 128-106 on Sunday behind a rejuvenated Mike Dunleavy who has scored 36 points in each of Indiana’s past two wins.
"Mike is a hell of a scorer," said Pacers head coach Jim O'Brien. "He gets on a roll, and we try running him off as many pick-and-rolls as we can. Whenever Mike or Danny (Granger) score a lot of points, a lot of it has to do with our tempo. The last couple games, our tempo has been where it needed to be."
The Pacers will be hard-pressed to perform so efficiently again the Rockets who are saying that, despite the loss of starting center Yao Ming, they can still make a deep playoff run while playing their smoother offensive style under veteran head coach Rick Adelman.
"We believe despite losing Yao, we're still a good team," Rockets guard Tracy McGrady told the Rockets' official Web site. "We're right there with the best of them. We're not worrying about what anyone says. But opinions are going to change eventually."
"We know how good we are and we're showing it," McGrady added. "We're a focused group, a group that understands how to win ballgames."
"It's been fun ... but it's a run that we're not satisfied by," forward Shane Battier said. "We feel like we still have a lot of improvement and that's the exciting part. I don't think we're playing our best."
The Pacers have covered the spread in just four of their last ten games, but have picked up ATS wins in each of their last two contests while the Rockets have covered the spread in nine of ten and seven consecutive games coming into tonight’s affair.
Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my analysis and NBA Betting Free Picks:
The Pacers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.
The Pacers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 vs. NBA Southwest.
The Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last five home games vs. a team with a losing road record.
The Rockets are 5-0 ATS in their last five games following a SU win of more than ten points.
The Under is 4-0 in Pacers last four games after scoring more than 125 points in their previous game.
The Under is 20-6-1 in Rockets last 27 after scoring 100 points or more in their previous game.
The Under is 10-2 in the last 12 meetings.
The Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Houston.
Analysis: While the Pacers are certainly not in the same class as the Rockets, they have been playing excellent basketball the last two games I believe they will come with a solid effort tonight while covering the spread against the Rockets. The ‘Over’ also looks pretty appealing tonight with both teams averaging well over 100 points per game in their last two contests.
NBA Free Picks: Indiana +11 Points/Over 201 Total Points
08:35 PM EST NBA Betting Odds
Indiana Pacers +11 -110
Houston Rockets -11 -110
Over 201 -110
Under 201 -110
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