posted October 5, 2007 at 19:28 in NBA Articles

Rookie of the Year Runaway?

When Greg Oden and Kevin Durant were drafted one-two earlier this year, it looked like we were in for a great two-way battle for the Rookie of the Year Award this season. Now that Oden’s season is over before it even began the award should be Durant’s to lose, right? That leaves a small predicament for NBA betting fanatics. Do they bet on Durant for a low profit or take a chance at one of the underdogs and hope for a real payday?

Durant is currently listed as a huge favorite to win the rookie award having his odds at -350. To put that into perspective, the next-lowest odds on the list belong to Clippers’ rookie forward Al Thornton at +475. Going from -350 to +475 is a pretty big jump and the only comparison out there is the odds that Tiger Woods generally receives compared to the next golfer on the list.

It looks like there are only two ways for Durant to lose the award; either he follows Oden onto the injury list or becomes the next Sam Bowie. If Durant does somehow fall out of ROY favor, who’s a reasonable second choice?

Thornton joins a Clippers squad that will be without Elton Brand, their leading scorer and rebounder, for most of the season. Brand is out until at least February (and likely longer) after rupturing his Achilles during the offseason. The loss of Brand should open up more playing time for Thornton. He’ll still have to work around Tim Thomas and Ruben Patterson, but Thornton has the makeup of a solid NBA player – but he does play for the Clippers, which has never been a good thing for a rookie.

Also ranked highly on the BetUS NBA odds is Oden’s former Ohio State teammate Mike Conley Jr. at +650. Conley landed in Memphis where they were in desperate need for a point guard. Conley isn’t the only one trying to fill the hole in Memphis though, with Kyle Lowry, Juan Carlos Navarro and veteran Damon Stoudamire also gunning for the job. If Conley ends up in a platoon with Lowry and Navarro, his ROY chances will take a serious hit. However, just because Conley starts the season sharing minutes doesn’t mean it’ll stay that way. The same thing happened to Rudy Gay last season, before he was inserted into the starting lineup every day later on in the season. Conley’s a gamble, but if he shoots as well in the big leagues as he did at Ohio State he could be worth the risk.

Some other dark horse ROY candidates heading into the new season include Al Horford (+750), Jeff Green (+800) and Corey Brewer (+1000). Horford may have to battle Marvin Williams and Josh Smith for playing time in Atlanta so proceed with caution there. Green plays alongside Durant in Seattle so he’ll have to outplay the favorite, which could be next to impossible. And Brewer plays in Minnesota, where no one ever wins anything when it comes to basketball.

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