Posted on
4/23/2008 3:43:44 PM
NBA Furious Free Picks 2008 – Can Sixers Punish Pistons Again?
By Tim Furious
Philadelphia 76ers (40-42) vs. Detroit Pistons (59-23)
Wednesday, April 23rd --- Palace of Auburn Hills, Detroit --- 7:30pm EST
Series: Phi 1-0
NBA Betting Line: Detroit -10.5 (178.5)
Philadelphia embarrassed Detroit in the last matchup, beating them to the boards, batting down shots and absolutely decimating them with crash ball play. Can Detroit defend themselves at home and even the series, or will they lose the interior battle and send this series back to Philly with an ominous two-game deficit? I’d say, “Not if Rasheed has anything to do with it,” but I’m not so sure anymore.
And that is no knock against Rasheed Wallace, who posted 24 points and an inhuman 7 blocks in Game 1. It’s more of a knock against Detroit, who thought they could replace the once-great Ben Wallace with Antonio McDyess and Jamiel Maxwell. Way to go management. Detroit’s defense allowed a slim 90.1 points against, but they got decimated by teams with great post games.
That’s where Samuel Dalembert comes in. Sammy D made his presence felt on the court, even though it wasn’t properly reflected on the stat sheet. He swatted 4.0 blocks away and completely dominated the paint in Game 1, making life a living hell for Detroit in the middle. In the process, he sucked the life out of Sheed and Detroit.
Andre Igoudala, Andre Miller, Willie Green and Thaddeus Young are doing a great job in playing aggressive perimeter defense. But Philadelphia is still a team the relies on streaky shooting and crashing the lane like as if they’re a bunch of rally cars whose brakes have been snipped. Against a systematically, cerebral team like Detroit, those tactics won’t go a long way.
The important thing to remember about a Game 1 is that teams never tip their hands. Game 2 and beyond is when they make their adjustments. Detroit has gone 9-3 ATS and 10-2 SU in their last 12 home games. But, against double-digit spreads, they have struggled. The UNDER is a suckers bet because the oddsmakers are assuming that Detroit will put the clamps on Philadelphia. But assuming that both teams will be hold under 90-points each is a little absurd. Combined, the Pistons and Sixers were +14.1 above the 90-point threshold.
Still, while I like Detroit to even the series tonight, I still believe Philadelphia is going to cover. Detroit has given them life by rolling over in Game 1, and has given them hope they can topple the Piston Empire. Tonight, Philadelphia rewards their betting faithful while allowing Detroit to even the series.
NBA Betting Free Pick: Philadelphia +10.5 (OVER)
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