Posted on
5/15/2008 5:41:53 PM
NBA Furious Opinion – Does Detroit Want Boston or Cleveland?
By Tim Furious
Last season, Detroit was demolished by LeBron James. They didn’t let that happen this year against Dwight Howard, who they successfully shut down in the second round of the Eastern Conference Playoffs. After bouncing Orlando 4-1, Detroit sits patiently waiting for Boston and Cleveland to finish out their series.
The real question on their mind is this – who would they prefer to face? Either they face one of the best teams ever assembled, or one of the best players ever to set foot on the floor. That’s about as close as you get being crammed between a rock and a hard place.
Here are a few things to consider before you lump some money on Detroit to advance to the NBA Finals:
1) Home Court Advantage
The home team has had a definitive advantage in these playoffs. Detroit has lost only one home game in these playoffs, and that was the first game against those upstart Sixers. Currently they sit on a 6-1 SU record on their home court. In the standings, they sit squarely between Boston, the top seed, and Cleveland. If home court truly play an advantage in these playoffs, which has been the growing betting trend, then Detroit wants Cleveland.
2) Star Power
LeBron destroyed the Pistons last year. But that doesn’t mean that Detroit wouldn’t prefer to see him again. Revenge is a dish best served in the NBA Playoffs. Sure, last year sucked if you were Detroit. But defeating Cleveland this year would make last year a wash.
You’re deciding between a team that has LeBron, Zydrunas and Josh Smith over Kevin Garnett, Ray Allen and Paul Pierce. The choice is pretty simple if you ask me. LeBron has faced the Pistons three times this season, and has posted point totals of 15, 30 and 13. That puts him at a 1-2 SU record against Detroit, while the Cavs as a whole are 1-3 SU this season.
Transversely, Detroit was pummeled by Boston twice this season by a net margin of +15 this season. That is not bad, but it’s not good either. The problem for Boston is that Detroit is an impossibly hostile place to play, and Detroit is peaking while Boston is bumbling.
That’s why, despite the star power of the Boston Three Party, Detroit would much rather face Boston over Cleveland in terms of star power. Laugh all you want, but would you prefer three guys who have never gotten over the hump, or the Chose One who crushed your playoff hopes the year before? Thought so.
3) Revenge and Vengeance Factor
The LeBron thing has been put in to the ground. Detroit, obviously, wants revenge for that. But don’t you think that the arrogance of the Pistons organization has them frothing at the mouth to take down Boston, perceived as the best team in the NBA? I sure do.
4) Stats Worth Betting On
The point totals and defensive stats, aside, I’m talking about personnel stats. In the matchups against Boston, the Boston Three Party totaled 61, 42, 47. Believe it or not, those are favorable to Detroit because, after their first meeting, Detroit was able to find answers against the Big Three.
The problem for Boston when playing Detroit is going to be Chauncey Billups, who put up 22.5 points per game and chipped in 7.0 helpers. That will be a nightmare for Raging Rondo and Sam Cassell to stop. Likewise, against Cleveland, Billups put up 8.5 points per game.
Likewise, Rasheed Wallace played magnificently in the face of Garnett with 16.0 points and 8.3 rebounds. His totals dip considerably when they face Cleveland.
Against Boston, LeBron has averaged 30+ points during the season. Against Detroit, that average dips to 19.3 points, but the offensive output of Detroit against Cleveland overshadows that.
Stat wise, Boston presents a smaller problem to Detroit because their offensive production off-sets the Boston Three Party. Detroit’s offense sputters against Cleveland, even though LeBron puts up mediocre numbers against them. For that reason, Detroit would rather face Boston if it was purely a numbers game.
Final Verdict
They’ll have home court advantage against Cleveland. Yet their numbers are better against Boston. Those two glaring losses against the Celtics also diminishes their value to the betting investor, but it shouldn’t. The Pistons are peaking at the perfect time right now.
While getting revenge on LeBron for last year’s horrific collapse (remember the now historic Game 5 from last year?), would be a sweet benefit in facing Cleveland, Detroit has shown a penchant for producing against the Celtics. Considering the road woes that the Green has endured on the road, and Detroit’s resiliency away from the Palace, Detroit would much rather face Boston.
To be the best, you’ve got to beat the best. And a seven gamer with Rasheed and KG battling under the rim is enough to delight any NBA fan. Frankly, we’re all clamoring for a showdown between Boston and Detroit. And if I were the Pistons, I would be too.
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