Posted on 3/5/2008 4:00:31 PM

NBA Furious Free Picks 2008 – Raptors Look To Avoid Getting Burned By Heat

By Tim Furious

Toronto Raptors (32-27) vs. Miami Heat (11-47)

Wednesday, March 5th --- AmericanAirlines Arena, Miami --- 7:30pm EST

NBA Betting Line: Miami -2 (196)

What’s worse than losing your star player in Chris Bosh to a knee injury? How about going on a three game losing streak? Not bad enough? Well how about being pinned as underdogs to the Miami Heat! If that doesn’t stoke the fire for the Raptors, I don’t know what will. Toronto needs to turn the tides in their favor again before the city riots and their betting faithful start abandoning ship.

Toronto has always played poorly against Miami. They are 6-1-1 ATS in their last 8 games when playing Miami which is the reason they are probably underdogs, coupled with the loss of CB4. But Toronto is also 5-14 SU in their last 19 games playing Miami. Statistically they are a superior team. They outscore Miami by 6.1 points per game, allow only 96.2 points per game and are certainly a stronger rebounding team.

This is a game I expect to rocket to the OVER. Toronto has pushed the OVER in 7 of their last 10 road games and Orlando can’t play defense to save their lives. They allow 101.0 points per game and Toronto is still a strong scoring team without Bosh. Their perimeter shooting is amongst the best in the league with a 46.6 shooting percentage as a team. They have sharp shooters coming off the bench that can nail daggers from beyond the arc, or from range, to keep the score close.

Jamario Moon will have the dubious task of defending Shawn Marion, who is freakishly similar to the contending ROY. Moon has 8.4 points per game in 28.5 minutes and leads the team with 1.36 blocks per game. As most of you smart betting investors know, blocking is an instinct developed in to an art. It is not a developed talent, and Moon has it in spades. It will be an interesting showdown between the Matrix and Moon to say the least.

But I don’t’ like the fact that nobody on the Raptors will be able to control Dwayne Wade. And who gets this job? Jose Calderon? I love El Calderon, but he is a defensive liability. He has trouble with his footwork in keeping up with naturally gifted athletes that slash through, and T.J. Ford is not much better.

But still, we’re talking about a well coached Raptors team that has rewarded their betting investors all season long. The Heat have won eleven games. Eleven. While I expect this to be a tight scoring affair, I don’t see the Raptors losing this game. Until Bosh comes back, they will get outmuscled by opponents with definitive low-post scoring threats. But the depth on the Raptors will be able to beat the Heat straight up with bench scoring and superior team defense.

It’s not all bad for Miami though. Every loss brings them closer to Michael Beasley. And who wouldn’t be scared of a Wade-Marion-Beasley combination? See, there’s always a silver lining Heat fans.

NBA Betting Line: Toronto +2 (OVER)

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