Posted on
3/5/2008 4:19:06 PM
NBA Furious Free Picks 2008 – Detroit Battles Boston
By Tim Furious
Detroit Pistons (44-16) vs. Boston Celtics (46-12)
Wednesday, March 5th --- TD Banknorth Garden, Boston --- 7:30pm EST
NBA Betting Line: Boston -4.5 (183.5)
The NBA’s best records collide tonight in what promises to be an epic showdown. Boston is getting the early lead in this one, with a 4.5 point handicap and the favor of the betting community. Sam Cassell will not make his debut tonight, but that certainly adds to Boston’s chances of winning the NBA title in our NBA futures department. These teams each own a victory over one another this season. Boston won the last showdown. Can they make it back-to-back victories?
Boston is undefeated in their past 5 games at home, but the are 2-6-1 ATS in their last 9 games. They are also 2-5-1 ATS in their past 8 games when playing at home against Detroit. A lot of those longer records are obviously due to how horrific the Celts were last season. But the Clovers have been getting steep lines against low level talent like the Hawks and Bobcats. They’ve won decisively in their past 5 games, but the margin of victory hasn’t been enough to cover. And that’s the oddsmakers fault for having such vaunted expectations of the Celtics.
The Pistons have gone 4-2 ATS in their past 6 games and are 6-2 SU in their past 8 road games. They are a strong team, and aren’t making headlines because they hardly make any big moves in the trade market. But up and down this team plays solid defense. Rip, Chauncey, Prince and Sheed all average 13.0+ points per game, while McDyess chips in 8.8 rebounds per game. Billups is back in the lineup, and is expected to absolutely dehumanize Rondo at the point, who will be looking over his shoulder now that Uncle Sam is in town.
Anyone who writes that the road to the NBA Championship still goes through Detroit is an idiot, because somebody forgot to tell Lebron James that last year. And somebody definitely forgot to tell the C’s that. We’re talking about three hyper-competitive superstars all hitting their prime at the same time. KG has 18.5 points per game with 9.9 boards and 3.7 assists, while The Truth still headlines the team with 20.5 points per game. The Celtics can pour on the points, but it’s not like Detroit is offensively inept. They can keep up. It’s just that Rip and Prince don’t have the big names of the Boston Three Party.
What this game comes down to is depth and defense. Boston is the third best defense in the league with 90.6 points against per game and 87.9 points against at home. But they are a paper thin roster until Cassell gets in to the mix. Detroit is quite the opposite. They are a rich and full roster with a full complement of role players to balance out the spread scoring that this offense provides. Plus, they are the best defensive team in the league with 90.3 points against and 92.8 points give on the road.
I’m willing to be that Rondo experiences a mortal collapse with Sam looking over his shoulder, paving the way for Chauncey to take complete control of this game. And while KG and Sheed battle in the paint, the solid team defense of Detroit will baffle the Celtics. Boston has been on a cake walk in the past five game, playing a lot of sub-par teams. They will get a rude awakening when the Pistons upset them at home. Bet on the Pistons as Chauncey shows Doc exactly why he should’ve started Uncle Sam tonight.
NBA Betting Free Pick: Detroit +4.5 (UNDER)
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