Posted on 3/26/2008 7:00:25 PM

NBA Furious Free Picks 2008 – Bucks Looking To Bounce Back Against Atlanta

By Tim Furious

Milwaukee Bucks (24-45) vs. Atlanta Hawks (30-40)

Wednesday, March 26th --- Philips Arena, Atlanta --- 7:00pm EST

NBA Betting Line: Atlanta -7.5 (208.5)

People have such bad memories. Milwaukee is terrible. I repeat – TERRIBLE. And Atlanta is a sexy pick whenever they play at home. The line is moving away from Atlanta because people think that the Bucks can light it up on any given night. While I would hold that true for the most part, this Bucks team has showed zero signs of life as of late. They are 1-7 SU in their past 8 games and are 0-5 ATS in their past 5 roadies.

Atlanta is a hot team, clawing for a desperate playoff spot. While they are defensively inept, allowing 99.0 points against, Milwaukee is worse. The Bucks get ripped open for 102.4 points per game, and only manage 95.9 points per game. For a team as defensively limited as Milwaukee, you’d expect them to open the offense and allow their potentially potent offense to blow up the scoreboard. Well, that doesn’t happen that often.

A lot of people are A-Town down because the Hawks are a defensive liability since the acquisition of Bibby. That isn’t Bibby’s fault, and it’s not like Bibby was a celebrated defender beforehand. More importantly, the Hawks have had hot hands lately in Josh Smith and Joe Johnson. And those hands get blazing hot at home, which is a large reason that Atlanta is 5-2 SU in their past 7 home games. Granted, they are 2-4 ATS in their past 6 home games, but those were against high caliber teams like Orlando. You can’t expect Atlanta to seriously contend with a team like that.

Against the Bucks though? I love them. The Bucks have been phoning in games like a drunk telemarketer lately. They lost to Miami. Twice. Atlanta’s overall defense is twelfth in the League, and I expect Smith and Johnson to put on another scoring clinic tonight at home. Al Horford has cooled off substantially since his outburst around the All-Star break, but he is becoming a much more creative scorer, using his body to create separation and his athletic ability to dominate the paint. The Bucks rely on their shooting, and are you really going to rely on the second-worst field goal shooting team in the league with a marginal spread like this? I didn’t think so.

Bet safely on Atlanta to win tonight and cover anything -8.5 or below. The Bucks have given the betting faithful out there zero reason to believe in them on the road against the spread. At the very least, the promising and exciting Hawks have been strong ATS at home and play much better in the dirty south. And when two defensively challenged teams lock horns, it’s always safe to take the OVER

NBA Furious Free Pick: Atlanta -7.5 (OVER)

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