Posted on 3/25/2008 4:52:02 PM

NBA Furious Free Picks 2008 – Brutal Road Hawks Visit Bulls

By Tim Furious

Atlanta Hawks (30-39) vs. Chicago Bulls (27-42)

Tuesday, March 25th --- United Center, Chicago --- 8:30pm EST

NBA Betting Line: Chicago -4 (206.5)

The Atlanta Falcons are in the NBA Eastern Conference playoff picture. Let me repeat that. The Atlanta Falcons are in the NBA Eastern Conference playoff picture. Strange to read that, isn’t it? Well try writing it. While the idea of the Hawks getting crushed by the Celtics is tough to get your head around, it may not be as difficult to get on this betting bandwagon. The Hawks are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games.

I’ve been saying this all second half, but the Hawks are a clear stay away team because of their propensity to light up the scoreboard, and their ability to disappear defensively. They couldn’t stop a blind cripple from driving the lane. And don’t blame Mike Bibby. Their defensive woes were well established before the arrival of Bibby. Whenever a team gives up 99.0 points per game on average, it’s never a good sign. It’s a good thing they average 98.6 points per game behind the deft scoring talent of Joe Johnson and Josh Smith.

Chicago has been nothing short of a bust this season after making the playoffs last year. What happened is anyone’s guess, but the team chemistry has been atrocious and the young talent simply hasn’t panned out. The Bulls have gone 1-4 SU and ATS in the past five games and could be legitimately tanking the season since their playoff dreams have been burst. The only thing Chicago does well (besides lose basketball games) is crash the boards. They are the fifth best rebounding home team in the league with 45.4 boards per game. The energy of Noah has helped accelerate those numbers, but so has the emergence of Tyrus Thomas as a student of the game.

And that rebounding is one thing I really worry about when betting on this game. The Bulls take away second chances better than most teams because they crowd the lane. And on top of that, Atlanta doesn’t play well on the road at all. They are 4-20 SU their last 24 road games, and 5-11 ATS in their last 16 games on the road. Chicago has given no reason to have absolute faith in them tonight, but against Atlanta they are 12-1 SU in the past 13 and 5-1 ATS in their past 6 meetings.

I love Atlanta when they’re playing at home because they can shoot the lights out, but on the road they lose their rhythm and don’t play with the same level of stoic confidence they show at home. And for that reason, the best bet is on the Bulls at home tonight.

NBA Furious Free Pick: Chicago -4 (OVER)

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