posted April 2, 2008 at 17:18 in NBA Articles
NBA Free Picks Wizards Conjuring Victory Over Bucks
Milwaukee Bucks (25-48) vs. Washington Wizards (38-36)
Wednesday, April 2nd --- Verizon Center, Washington --- 7:00pm EST
NBA Betting Line: Washington -10.5 (207.5)
The Bucks have kept on sucking, and the spreads keep on getting bigger and bigger. With just two wins in their last 12 games, and a record of 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games, the Bucks are playing less for pride and more for a shot at Michael Beasley. With Caron Butler and Gilbert Arenas sidelined by injuries (again and still) the Wizards are still getting double-digits against the hapless Bucks.
The numbers speak very loud, but they’re not so clear. The Wizards are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games, despite going 8-4 SU in their last 12. They are 4-1 SU in their last 5 games at home, and have had zero problems dispatching the Bucks at home. They are 4-1 SU in their last 5 hunting sessions of the Bucks. But the point is whether they can beat the spread.
Milwaukee is 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games on the road against Washington, and while everyone points towards the Wizards on the moneyline, the Bucks actually match up well enough to stand tough against the Tough Juice-less Wizards. And the reason is rebounding.
The Bucks rosters is huge – as in tall – and average 42 boards per game, while the Wizards have dropped off the boards as if they’re covered in butter. The Wizards are still a small team overall, and the Bucks can take away second chances and create their own, with or without Andrew Bogut. The Bucks have lost by an average of 5.5 points to the Wizards in their past two meetings, so despite the Bucks recent woes, I’d still bet on them with the double-digit handicap.
And as far as the O/U goes, the lack of true scores on the floor will keep this game in the UNDER. There’s just not going to be enough explosive scoring in this game to expect this point total to bridge the 205 mark. So 207.5 is a great bet in the UNDER.
NBA Betting Free Picks: Milwaukee +10.5 (UNDER)
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