Posted on 6/7/2007 4:24:54 PM

NBA Finals Series Prices Betting

By Vegas Dave

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It’s June and the NBA Finals are just beginning. Maybe it is time to start talking about how to shorten the playoffs, which span over three-months, but that’s another conversation.

The San Antonio Spurs (-500) are heavily favored to dismantle the Cleveland Cavaliers (+350) in the Finals and the oddsmakers, as usual, have it pegged right.

The Cavs are a sexy pick because they have the sexier player, LeBron James. But one man does not a team make.

 

Cleveland is coming off a confidence-building series win, but one can’t help but wonder if that was another Dallas-Golden State type of series. Cleveland just seemed to match up against Detroit perfectly, limiting Chauncey Billups and Tayshaun Prince, and dictating the pace of the game.

Prior to the Eastern Conference Finals, Cleveland was not overly impressive in defeating New Jersey or the short-handed Washington Wizards, who nearly stole a game.

Meanwhile, San Antonio has burned up the Denver Nuggets, the Phoenix Suns and the Utah Jazz to get to this point. All three of their opponents are as good as or better than the Cavaliers.

Cleveland has not faced an animal like the Spurs so far this postseason. They will have to deal with Tim Duncan standing in the lane and deterring their players from driving, which is a hurdle they did not have to deal with against Detroit, New Jersey or Washington.

If the Phoenix Suns’ offense can be equated to Angelina Jolie in a skimpy bathing suit, then the Cavaliers offense is a topless Roseanne, in a thong. They struggle to score as it is and will have to once again dictate the pace, slow San Antonio’s offense and keep the games in the low 80’s.

Unfortunately for Cleveland, Duncan is even stronger on offense than he is defense, and the fleet-footed Tony Parker figures to be another lingering problem.

In the first three rounds, the Cavs have dealt with big point guards, something that they are adept at dealing with. But Parker is known for his quickness and his fearlessness to attack the basket.

The bottom line is that the Cavs are tailored to beat a team like Detroit but their true weaknesses will be exposed by San Antonio.

 

The Spurs have the better coach, they are the more experienced unit, they are more comfortable playing in pressure situations and they have the home-court advantage.

For San Antonio, their main focus will be to curtail LeBron James’ production. James may go off for 30 points a night and he will likely create another 15-20 points for his teammates. That means that the rest of his teammates will have to produce another 30-40 points on their own, and I don’t believe that will happen.

Daniel Gibson figures to be the x-factor. If the rookie can drop 25 a game, the Spurs might find themselves in trouble. But don’t count on it, especially since Gregg Poppovich is a far superior coach than Flip Saunders.

Adding to the list of obstacles for the Cavs will be Larry Hughes’ torn heel. He gutted it out in the Eastern Conference Finals but he will be a defensive liability against the faster Spurs point guards.

James will will the Cavs to two wins, but no more.

NBA Series Prediction: Spurs in six.

Record: 7-1 in playoff series picks

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