Posted on 3/14/2008 7:43:19 PM

NBA Saturday Betting - Sacramento Kings vs. Phoenix Suns

By D.S. Williamson

Sacramento Kings (predict: + 10.5) vs. Phoenix Suns (predict: - 10.5)

Tip-off: 10:00 pm EST.

The Kings travel to Phoenix to take on a Suns team that has suddenly turned the corner. The win versus the Spurs last weekend was ultra-impressive. Then, they played small ball versus the Golden State Warriors just this past Thursday and covered against the BetUS spread for the third straight time. Phoenix is now 5 and 5 against the BetUS spread in their last 10 games.

The Sacramento Kings have gone 3-6-1 against the BetUS spread in their last 10 games. But they did beat the Los Angeles Lakers straight-up two games ago. That means that they can play against the best in the NBA on any given night. Here are more trends.

The Sacramento Kings are 4-0-1 against the spread in their last 5 road games versus a team with a home winning percentage of at least .600.

The Phoenix Suns are 4 and 1 against the spread in their last 5 games playing on 1 day of rest.

The Home team is 4 and 1 against the spread in the last 5 meetings between these two teams.

The Over is 5 and 0 in the last 5 meetings between these two teams in Phoenix.

I’m going to ignore the BetUS over/under in this game for the simple fact that Sacramento should come out with Brad Miller on Shaq. That means that this game will probably be a low-scoring affair. Phoenix likes to go small ball when Shaq is either in foul trouble or the other team throws a bunch guards into the game.

Phoenix has changed in the sense that they are more than happy to slow things down and let Nash play two-game with either Shaq or Amare. One of those guys plays with Nash, the other goes for the rebound.

This causes tremendous issues for other teams. Sacramento has match-up problems with the Suns no matter how they decide to play - - small ball or big ball. Either way the Kings should be in trouble in this game. That’s why I believe that the BetUS line will fall somewhere around 10.5 points.

The predicted BetUS line is Phoenix Suns – 10.5 against the spread at home versus the Sacramento Kings.

I’m going to set my personal line at 12.5. Anything above that, think about a wager on the Kings. Anything below that and the Suns should cover.

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