posted February 22, 2008 at 17:21 in NBA Betting Trends

While the rest of the Western Conference has tried mightily to improve themselves by trading for high profile players, the Lakers have done it the old-fashioned way. Sure, they picked up Pau Gasol, but instead of trying to figure out how Gasol was going to work his way into their line-up, they asked Gasol to become part of the team. Which, not surprisingly, he is more than happy to do. Without a doubt, the Los Angeles Lakers are the hottest team in the NBA. Against the BetUS spread they have gone a fantastic 10 and 1 in their last 11 games. They are probably the most disciplined team in terms of offensive team and defensive team basketball. The Los Angeles Clippers, of course, are on the opposite side of that spectrum. The Clip show has actually been okay lately, going 5 and 5 against the BetUS spread. That won’t help them in this game, however.

Here are more trends:

The Los Angeles Lakers are 7 and 1 against the spread in their last 8 games versus a rival team from the NBA Pacific Division.

The Los Angeles Lakers are 4 and 1 against the spread in their last 5 games playing on 2 days of rest.

The Los Angeles Clippers are 2 and 5 against the spread in their last 7 games versus a rival team from the NBA Pacific Division.

The Los Angeles Lakers are 2 and 6 against the spread in the last 8 meetings between these two teams in Los Angeles (that would be the Staples Center!).

I’m predicting a rather high BetUS spread only because I do believe that there is no way NBA bettors start dropping hard-earned coin on the Clippers. The spread should open at around 12.5 points. By tip-off, it could definitely climb to 14.5 which I have listed here or higher.

The Clippers are, according to the last trend highlighted, actually pretty good when it comes to playing against their cross-town rivals. The Clip show lost by only 11 points to the Lakers the last time these two teams met, but, of course, that occurred in December before the Lakers picked up super-dude Pau Gasol.

So, where does that leave us? The Lakers may cool down against the BetUS spread, but they won’t lose this game. That means that we need to be very careful about where our money lands.

Let’s give ourselves a nice cut-off point. Anything below the 14.5 I’ve predicted tells me that the Lakers should cover. Anything above it tells me that maybe the Clippers could beat the spread. 14.5 is a lot of points - - even for the best team in the NBA right now.

I’m going to say the Clippers have enough pride to beat the spread but will use the greatest word in the English dictionary, if, to give myself some leeway.

The predicted BetUS basketball betting line is Los Angeles Clippers + 14.5 against the spread at home versus the Los Angeles Lakers.

If the line falls under 14.5, then my money will be on the Lakers. If it falls at 14.5 or above, then my money will be on the Clippers.

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