Posted on 3/18/2008 4:41:20 PM

NBA Betting - Los Angeles Lakers vs. Dallas Mavericks

By D.S. Williamson

Los Angeles Lakers (+ 5.5) vs. Dallas Mavericks (- 5.5)

Tip-off: 8:35 pm EST.

The Lakers suffered a huge setback when Pau Gasol went down with an injury last week. The first game after Pau’s injury resulted in a Lakers’ loss to the 22 in a row Houston Rockets. The biggest issue is that Pau is listed as “out indefinitely”. With Andrew Bynum out of action and Trevor Ariza and Chris Mihm not expected back until later this month, the Lakers all of a sudden find themselves in a tough spot. That’s reflected in their against the spread record as the once mighty Los Angeles Lakers have gone 3 and 7 against the BetUS spread in their last 10 games. They’ve gone 0 and 4 against the BetUS spread in their last 4 games.

The Dallas Mavericks have clawed their way back into playoff contention by winning both straight-up and against the spread. They’ve won 5 in a row straight-up. Against the BetUS spread the Mavs have gone 7-2-1 in their last 10 games. Here are more trends.

The Los Angeles Lakers are 4 and 1 against the spread in their last 5 games as an underdog.

The Dallas Mavericks are 9 and 0 against the spread in their last 9 games following a day of rest.

The Over is 7 and 0 against the spread in the Mavericks last 7 games versus a team from the NBA Pacific Division.

The Underdog is 8-3-1 against the spread in the last 12 meetings between these two teams.

The BetUS over/under in this game is 205.5. That’s a pretty large number. The Lakers have scored 98 and 92 points respectively in their last two games. Those were against the New Orleans Hornets and the Houston Rockets. The Mavs can put the ball in the hole, but the last time these two teams met, with Pau Gasol playing, it took an overtime session for the Lakers to put up 108 points and the Mavs to put up 104 points.

Even though the trends say opposite, this feels like an under game to me. I’ll have to go with the under.

The Lakers meanwhile are receiving close to 6 points on the road in this affair. It won’t matter. Without a big man, any big man, to eat up some space in the middle, the Mavs should be able to slash to the basket with Josh Howard and Jason Terry. I expect the old man, Jason Kidd, to find some openings in that Laker defense.

That means that the Mavs should cover the 5.5 BetUS spread in this game.

The BetUS NBA Betting line is Dallas Mavericks – 5.5 against the spread at home versus the Los Angeles Lakers.

I like the Mavs to cover in a slow-moving, low-scoring game. Mavs to the under sounds reasonable.

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