Posted on 4/29/2008 3:25:29 PM

NBA Betting Action – Hornets to Lay Final Sting on Mavs Tonight

By Eric Williams

I’ll come right out and say it to you online NBA betting faithful once again - the Dallas Mavericks, (52-34 SU, 36-46-4 ATS, 41-43-2 O/U) made a mistake of epic proportions when they went out and traded away blossoming young point guard Devin Harris for aging all-star point guard Jason Kidd just prior to the annual trade deadline in an effort to give their team a veteran presence who could help close out close games late in the fourth quarter.

After half a regular season with the Mavericks and four games of postseason play in the BetUS Sportsbook, it is clear to see that Kidd has become more of a hindrance to the Mavericks than a help, particularly on defense where he has been burned time and time again by fleet-footed New Orleans Hornets, (59-27 SU, 53-31-2 ATS, 42-42-2 O/U) all-star point guard Chris Paul on a dizzying array of spectacular forays to the basket.

Not only did Kidd managed a meager three points on offense , shooting just 1-for-6 from the field, but Kidd also horse-collared Hornets combo-guard Jannero Pargo on his way to the basket, drawing a flagrant 2 foul call and the automatic ejection that goes along with it.

Still, the Hornets enter tonight’s close-out Game 5 glad that Kidd will be on the court after dodging a suspension he probably should have gotten.

"We didn't want him to get suspended," said Pargo, who caught himself in the nick of time before crashing to the court on the cheap shot from Kidd. "We want them to be at full strength and have their best team out there on the floor, so that way, if we get the win, it won't be tainted at all."

While the Mavericks held Paul to 16 points on 6-for-14 shooting from the field, the Hornets still managed to pick up their third double-digit victory of the series as David West scored 24 points Peja Stojakovic added 19 in Sunday night’s 97-84 victory.

"We've gotten them out of rhythm on the offensive end because of our defense ... and that's going to continue because we understand how important it is for us to play defense to win this series," Hornets coach Byron Scott said. "We have a lot of confidence that we can win this series. Obviously right now, being up 3-1, we've put ourselves in a pretty good position to make sure that happens."

Josh Howard is averaging just 12.8 points per game in the series while veteran scorer Jerry Stackhouse is putting up a pitiful 5.0 points per contest.

The Mavericks have gone just 3-7 against the spread in their last ten games dating back to the regular season while the Hornets have gone 6-4 against the spread over the same span.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends followed by my NBA Gambling Free Picks:

The Mavericks are 4-0 ATS in their last four playoff games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.

The Mavericks are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games following a double-digit loss at home.

The Hornets are 5-0 ATS in their last five playoff games as a favorite.

The Hornets are 7-1-1 ATS in their last nine Tuesday games.

The Over is 7-0 in Mavericks last seven games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.

The Over is 7-0 in Mavericks last seven games as a road underdog of 5.0-10.5.

The Under is 4-0 in Hornets last four games playing on one days rest.

The Over is 4-0 in Hornets last four playoff games as a favorite.

The Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings in New Orleans.

The Home team is 7-1 ATS in the last eight meetings.

Analysis: Simply put, the Mavericks are going down and they are going down hard - in the first round once again. Take the Hornets to pick up their fourth double-digit win in this close-out contest. I also like the Over in this matchup in a big way as the Hornets are likely to put the pedal to the metal early in this contest.

NBA Free Picks: Hornets -6 Points/Over 193 Total Points

03:00 PM EST NBA Odds

Dallas Mavericks +6 -110

New Orleans Hornets -6 -110

Over 193 -110

Under 193 -110

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