Posted on 2/20/2008 5:58:14 PM

NBA Betting - Furious Free Picks - Shaq Debuts Against LA

By Tim Furious

Los Angeles Lakers (36-17) vs. Phoenix Suns (37-16)

Wednesday, February 20th --- US Airways Center, Phoenix --- 9:00pm EST

NBA Betting Line: Phoenix -3.5 (222)

The Lakers have been cruising through teams in the past two weeks ever since Pau Gasol came to town. With the veteran power forward pick-and-rolling with Kobe, as if they’ve been doing so for years, the Lakers have ripped off five straight wins, both SU and ATS. Last night they bruised the Atlanta Hawks in a 122-93 victory. But guess who’s back…

That’s right. Shaq makes his Suns debut tonight against the team he has enjoyed more success with than the Magic, Heat and Suns combined. But now Kobe has a new running mate. Gasol is averaging a whopping 20.9 points per game and 8.0 rebounds per game with the Lakers, while Kobe has maintained an excruciating high level of achievement with 27.9 points, 6.1 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game during the season.

The Lakers are 8-1 ATS in their past 9 road games and are 7-1 SU in their last 8 games on the road. This will easily be their stiffest test since Gasol came on board. Nobody expected the chemistry to click so quickly between Gasol and the Lakers. I’m sure the Suns are envious.

After dealing Marion to the Heat in exchange for Shaq and fodder, the Suns have been struggling to adapt to the new dynamic. As a result they’ve gone 2-4-1 ATS in their last 7 games, meaning that the oddsmakers are having just as a hard time adjusting to the new-look Suns as the Suns themselves. Still with an 11-4 SU record in the past 15 games, you can’t complain as a fan – just as a betting investor.

The tilts between these two teams have always gotten thoroughly out of hand. In fact, the total has gone OVER in 4 of the past 5 battles between the Suns and Lakers. While the Lakers are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games against the Suns, they are also 1-7 SU in their past 8, meaning that they handle the line pretty well, but hardly get the win.

With Andrew Bynum still on the shelf, Amare Stoudemire is going to be a difficult matchup for the Lakers. Amare leads the Suns with 23.2 points per game and 9.3 rebounds. And no matter what, it will be hard to stop Steve Nash no matter who is trying to defend him.

But the ultimate problem for the Suns is Kobe Bryant. Shawn Marion was masterful at covering the KB24, but with him South Beach, who gets the unwanted task of trying to shut down Kobe? Grant Hill? Please. Raja Bell? Boris Diaw? Maybe Diaw. But the point is simple – with Marion in Miami, Kobe will be a matchup nightmare for this team. Especially as they try to figure out Gasol, who can dance around Amare Stoudemire and Shaq at will. I don’t see Shaq being a huge influence in this game, simply because he is slow and unaccustomed to playing with a running team.

Considering their past success against the Suns with a tight line, take the Lakers with the points. The Lakers are averaging 107.4 points per game and can keep running the floor with the Suns who play half-hearted defense. With their best defensive asset swatting balls elsewhere, this is a game that Kobe can take over.

Get ready for a barn burner, folks. This one’s going to be fun.

NBA Free Pick: Lakers -3.5 (OVER)

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