Posted on 3/11/2008 3:34:02 PM
Basketball Betting Free Picks Milwaukee Bucks Battle Wizards

Milwaukee Bucks (23-40) vs. Washington Wizards (30-32)

Tuesday, March 11th --- Verizon Center, Washington --- 7:00pm EST

NBA Betting Line: Washington -7 (200)

After the Bucks looked like they were going to be one of those dangerous underdog teams that could kill a spread with deft perimeter shooting and an underrated inside presence, the oddsmakers began correcting the line on them. The result is a 2-4 ATS record in their past 6 games, which goes along with a 2-8 ATS record they boast in their past 10 games. It also hasn’t helped that Mo Williams is injured with a sprained ankle.

The Wizards continue to surprise the NBA betting community by – well – winning games. They have struggled recently at home, going 2-6 ATS in their last 8 home games. They may be 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games, but they are also 6-13 SU in their past 19 games. Two things I don’t like about this game for the Wizards: the first is that this paper-thin roster is beginning to look extremely fatigued. They desperately need Arenas and Caron back, but it’s unsure when either will return.

The second thing is that they allow a horrendous number of three-point shots against. They allow 7.9 treys per game, and that is not a stat you want lingering over you as a team like the Bucks waltz in to town. By no stretch have the Bucks been a reliable shooting team (47.5 percent from the field), but they can get hot at times and Michael Redd is unpredictable as to whether or not he shows up.

But the truth is that the oddsmakers have been spot on about the Wizards for much of the second-half of the season. Milwaukee is an appallingly bad road team, and the Wizards are playing at a level of desperation right now. The Bucks in ability to play defense will be further exposed as Washington rolls through them at home. Bet on Washington as long as this line stays under -7.5 with the UNDER. Washington has held the game in the UNDER in 15 of their last 22 home stands.

NBA Furious Free Picks: Washington -7 (OVER)

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