Posted on
2/28/2008 4:02:49 PM
NBA Betting Free Picks - Can Heat Cool Off Incendiary Lakers?
By Eric Williams
The Miami Heat, (10-45 SU, 19-35-1 ATS, 28-25-2 O/U), ended their eleven-game losing streak in a big way by routing the mediocre Sacramento Kings 107-86 at home on Tuesday.
The Heat will face a tall task however in cooling off the red-hot Los Angeles Lakers, (40-17 SU, 36-19-1 ATS, 26-30 O/U), winners of nine straight games, including a convincing 96-83 victory over the struggling Portland Trailblazers on Tuesday.
The Lakers are currently in first place in the powerful western conference and know the importance of home-court advantage after being a seventh seed the last two seasons.
The Lakers are averaging 112.9 points per game during their winning streak and have won their last three games by an average of 17.0 points per contest.
Newly acquired big man, Pau Gasol is averaging 21.4 points per game while draining 62.8 percent of his shots from the field since being traded from the Memphis Grizzlies earlier this month.
Los Angeles has also won 13 of their last 16 games at the Staples Center.
Miami has dropped 13 straight road games but shot 52.0 percent against the Kings and held the Kings to a measly 10 points in the third quarter, setting a franchise record.
The Lakers have also been very solid against the spread covering in eight of their last ten games though they failed to cover a 15.5-point spread in the BetUS.com Sportsbook against the Blazers that I correctly predicted in the BetUS.com Locker Room on Tuesday.
The Heat have covered the spread in just three of their last ten games.
Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my analysis and NBA Betting Free Picks:
The Heat are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games as a road underdog of 11.0 or greater.
The Heat are 4-1-1 ATS in their last six games as an underdog of 11.0 or greater.
The Lakers are 4-0 ATS in their last four vs. NBA Southeast.
The Lakers are 6-0 ATS in their last six games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400.
The Over is 4-0-1 in Heat last five road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
The Under is 8-1 in Lakers last nine games as a favorite of 11.0 or greater.
The Under is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
The Over is 5-2 in the last seven meetings in Los Angeles.
Analysis: While I like the Los Angeles Lakers to win this game fairly easily, I think the Miami Heat are going to come out with a solid effort on the bright lights and big stage of the Staples Center. Take the Heat to cover the spread.
NBA Free Picks: Miami Heat + 14½/Over 209 Total Points
10:35 PM EST Basketball Gambling Odds
Miami Heat +14½ -110
LA Lakers -14½ -110
Over 209 -110
Under 209 -110
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