Posted on 4/14/2008 6:07:42 PM

NBA Basketball Wagering - Western Conference Playoff Preview

By Tim Furious

The West is wild indeed, and there’s no way to predict it. We here at BetUS Sportsbook don’t deal in uncertainties. With all the big names taking center stage in the fiercest conference of any sport, the playoffs are beginning to take shape. Which teams will you be siding with? The sports betting community wants you to enjoy the Western Conference playoffs. So let’s break this down. We’ll start with the West, where a man who has been hated for his entire career sits atop the mountain. Can anyone knock him and his team off the top?

ON THE OUTSIDE LOOKING IN

9. Golden State Warriors (48-32)

Either they fight to get in and get squashed by the Lakers, or they don’t make it and everyone finally gets off this Golden State bandwagon. Regardless of what Golden State did last year, I’m not going to push anyone to bet on a team that thrives on emotion and dives when the passion isn’t there. If a 34-46 ATS record doesn’t scare you, then you shouldn’t be betting on sports. And if you are, be smarter about it.

TEN FOOT POLE CLUB

8. Dallas Mavericks (50-31)

If I told you that there was a team that was severely undersized and led by a point-guard who can’t play defense and couldn’t shoot a duck, taking a nap in a cardboard box with a fully-loaded tank, you wouldn’t bet on them right? Not in the Western Conference anyways. So why do you feel comfortable betting on this team just because said point-guard’s name is Jason Kidd?

Dallas has played outstanding for much of the year, but they’re going up against much bigger teams in the West and the glaring loss of Dasagna Diop will be more evident in a seven-game series than the regular season. Dallas can’t possibly reap the benefits of the Jason Kidd trade in the furious Western Conference.

Point the finger all you want to their sixth ranked defense with only 95.9 points against, but I will never forgive Dallas for trading away Devin Harris for an over-the-hill guard whose leadership won’t be enough to steady this sinking ship.

7. Denver Nuggets (49-32)

While they’re in even standing with a 43-38 ATS record, they’re still a strange team to back and that’s why they get in the Ten Foot Pole Club. For a team with such ridiculous defenders (Camby and K-Mart), they get blown apart on the defensive end for 106.9 points per game. Their offense can go absolutely ballistic, and that’s why they’re the second-ranked offense in the league with 110.5 points.

But you can’t rely on scoring alone in the NBA and Denver’s inexcusable lack of defense should scare all their betting detractors away. If they pull it together, they’re virtually unstoppable. Maybe Carmelo Anthony’s DUI arrest is telling of this team. At any moment, this team can soar as high as Superman. Likewise they can revert in to Clark Kent. And you can’t rely on a team with a split personality like that.

Go ahead if you’d like, but I wouldn’t let my money go near them with a ten foot pole.

MAYBE, BUT NOT REALLY

6. Houston Rockets (54-26)

Take one magical 23-game winning streak, subtract one of the most dominant centers in the game, add a dash of trade steal (that resulted in Luis Scola) and dance to the tune of Skip To My Lou, and you have the Houston Rockets of 2007-08! And the great thing is that none of this matters because it’s the Houston Rockets and they’re going to lose in the first round anyways. Man, I love this game.

5. Utah Jazz (53-27)

The Jazz are much like the two-face chick from Seinfeld. When they’re playing at home, you can forget about it. They went 28-12 ATS at home. But when they hit the road, their defense completely collapses, which resulted in a 17-23 ATS record. Oddsmakers suckered guys that thought the Jazz were a title contender. They’re not, and if you’ve been burned by them in our sportsbook, you’ll never have faith in them again.

From top to bottom the roster is outstanding. Deron Williams is impossible to defend because of his size and court vision. And he makes everyone on the floor better. You have to love that. With 19.0 points per game and 10.6 rebounds per, and nobody has benefited from his gifts than Carlos Boozer, who leads the team with 21.3 points per game.

But defense is essential in the turbulent and violent Western Conference, and the fact that Utah will be traveling for 4-of-7 in the playoffs will hurt their chances. On top of all that, Jerry Sloan at the helm, even with boat loads of talent, means trouble for Utah’s betting faithful.

THE BIG QUESTION MARK

4. Phoenix Suns (53-27)

Slowing down the Suns was the smartest move Kerr could make. Steve Nash may be a two-time MVP, but he’s showing age and fast. With the Shaq trade came a reduction in speed, but not necessarily a step down in Nash’s production. He still puts up 17.2 points per game, and 11.1 assists along with that, but he’s not the main focal point of the argument concerning the Suns.

It’s Amare Stoudemire. With Shaq down low, Amare has emerged in to the monster threat we all hoped he’d be. Roaring ahead with 25.3 points and 9.2 rebounds per game, Amare (who desperately deserves a nickname) has been playing at an All-World level. His defense is deplorable, and unforgivable, but he is a force that puts too many good, big men in foul trouble.

The big question mark is this – who covers Manu? Who attempts to slows down Tracy or Kobe? Can Steve Nash even remotely stop CP3? The “who” would’ve been Shawn Marion, but with him gone, the Suns defense has allowed+10.8 points per game. Their inability to stop the slashing superstars of the West will haunt them. And while I like them, their defensive inabilities will be exposed in these playoffs in the face of much more balanced teams.

THE DEFENDING CHAMPS

3. San Antonio Spurs (54-26)

Can someone go Tanya Harding on Robert Horry already? Please? Between Tim Duncan, the league’s true MVP, Manu Ginobli and Tony Parker, this team is impossibly frustrating to the fan. And they’ve been treating their betting faithful like dirt this year. They’re an awful 37-43 ATS this season, and have been abysmal on the road with a 15-25 ATS record away from the Alamodome. But that just means the oddsmakers have been trapping bettors all season.

With the third best defense in the league, San Antonio enters the playoffs with that boring brand of basketball that causes so many NBA fans to jump of the bandwagon after they’ve plucked out their eyeballs and pulled out their hair. They allow only 90.6 points per game. If that wasn’t complimented by the third worst offense in the league (only 95.1 points per game), I’d be pushing this team a lot harder.

But this is “find a way to win” San Antonio, which loses so many betting faithful because they’re an easy team to hate. And with the athletic Manu nursing a sore groin, there’s no way San Antonio can put up the points they need to battle their heated Western rivals trying to knock the defending champs’ crown off and claim it for themselves.

IT ALL COMES DOWN TO…

2. New Orleans Hornets (55-25)

The only, single knock against New Orleans is their playoff inexperience. That is, however, if you count Peja Stojkavic’s time with the self-imploding Sacramento Kings. The Hornets have been steady this year, going 25-15 ATS at home and 24-15-1 ATS on the road. That’s as steady as it gets.

New Orleans averages a reliable 100.7 points per game, and teams have struggled immensely trying to stop the high-screen that Chris Paul is so productive with. But still, it’s hard to rely on a team that has such little playoff experience. This is perhaps the only team I would side with from a betting standpoint with that fact in consideration, and that’s because I refuse to believe CP3 falls apart simply from the playoff pressure.

It’s time for New Orleans to kiss the sky. The city deserves it, and frankly they matchup well with everyone. You only go as far as your point-guard, and Paul can beat Nash, Parker, Kidd, Alston and Iverson with his quickness and swift decision. The only two guys he has to beware of are Deron Williams…and the man who is challenging him for the MVP…

1. LA Lakers (56-25)

The basketball fan in me is dying to see a Celtics-Lakers NBA Finals. The betting man in me wants to put my money on the Lakers. And here are three simple reasons why:

1) Kobe Bryant is the deadliest scorer in the league and is playing at such a high level that he can not be stopped. He averages 28.4 points per game, 6.3 boards and 5.4 assists per game and is playing with a vengeful chip on his shoulder that means huge trouble fro the rest of the West.

2) Nobody plays better against Tim Duncan than Pau Gasol. Nobody. I have no idea why. Maybe Pau hates the Virgin Islands.

3) Coaching counts. And Phil Jackson is a winner, finally playing with a great team that is hitting stride at all the right moments.

Bryant needs to win this Conference title more than ever. And now that he knows he has Pau Gasol backing him up, Kobe is not a man any team wants to face in the West. It essentially comes down to how New Orleans responds to the playoffs. If it’s a positive response, the Lakers will be in trouble. If not, this Conference is LA’s to lose.

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