Posted on
4/10/2008 1:46:57 PM
NBA Basketball Wagering – Thursday Night Free Picks
By Dave Golokhov
Denver Nuggets @ Golden State Warriors
Two teams are battling for one chair and as the music stops next week, it’s quite likely that one of these teams will be standing (sitting, in this analogy, would be a good thing).
The Denver Nuggets and the Golden State Warriors are tied for the final playoff spot in the Western Conference. The winner of this game will go a long way into securing their position.
The Nuggets currently hold the tiebreaker between the two teams, so if they win tonight, they will actually have a two-game lead.
They have won 7 of the last 10 meetings overall but they better be ready for the Warriors best effort tonight.
The Warriors are 24-9 SU in a home game where the total is 210 or higher.
The over should be a good play with these two high scoring teams. The over has hit in five of the last six games where the Warriors are favored by 3.5 to six points and has hit 23 of the last 32 Nuggets games overall.
Free Pick: Golden State
Utah Jazz @ Dallas Mavericks
The Dallas Mavericks might be somewhat comfortable two games ahead of both the Denver Nuggets and the Golden State Warriors, but considering one of those teams will win for sure tonight, if Dallas loses they will be closer to the outside than the inside.
Since acquiring Jason Kidd, the Mavericks have won only once against a team with a winning record.
They are 17-21 SU against teams with a winning record and 5-14 in the second half of the season. On the other hand, the Utah Jazz play their best basketball when they face their best competition.
The Jazz are 15-2 against teams with a winning record in the second half of the season.
Dallas has won three of the last four meetings at home and is 5-0 in home games where the total is between 195 to 199.5.
Free Pick: Dallas
Los Angeles Lakers @ Los Angeles Clippers
The Los Angeles Lakers are still playing for playoff positioning. The Los Angeles Clippers are playing for spoiler.
But the bookies are discounting the spoiler angle as the Lakers are posted as a huge favorite.
The Lakers haven’t been a road favorite of 12.5 or more points at all in the last three years but are 12-3 in that role since 1996. They have only been favored once by 15.5 or more on the road since 1996.
The Clippers haven’t won in six tries as a home underdog of 12.5 points or more since 1996.
The Clipshow has been downright awful this year and of late. They have lost 18 of their last 22 games and are playing for draft lottery balls at this point.
The Lakers are 15-4 ATS in the second half of the season against teams that are allowing 99+ points per game and 23-12 ATS against teams with a losing record.
Free Pick: Los Angeles Lakers
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