Up to NBA Betting Trends

posted February 29, 2008 at 15:02 in NBA Betting Trends

The Dallas Mavericks, (38-19 SU, 23-31-3 ATS, 26-30-1 O/U), found out the hard way last night, that, even though they added one of the most prolific point guards in NBA history in veteran leader Jason Kidd, but that Kidd’s presence won’t mean much if they can’t find a way to stop Tim Duncan and the San Antonio Spurs at some point.

The Mavericks were beaten by the league’s defending champions 97-94 in San Antonio last night as head coach Avery Johnson made one of the strangest decisions of his young head coaching career by deciding to leave Kidd on the bench for the game’s final possession despite trading for arguably the best passer and decision-maker in the league, forcing the Mavs into a helter-skelter type of play that eventually ended with defensive star Bruce Bowen emphatically blocking a Jason Terry jump shot to ice the game.

The Sacramento Kings, (26-31 SU, 30-27 ATS, 29-24-4 O/U), haven’t had much thrilling drama surrounding their games recently, dropping three straight road games coming into this matchup, including a 123-117 loss to the Atlanta Hawks on Wednesday.

The Kings have also gone south against the spread in the BetUS.com Sportsbook, dropping four straight games after going 5-1 against the spread in their previous six contests.

The Mavericks had a three-game winning streak snapped by the Spurs and are just 5-5 in their last ten games overall and an uninspiring 4-6 against the spread over the same span.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my analysis and NBA Betting Free Picks:

The Kings are 6-1 ATS in their last seven games vs. a team with a winning percentage above .600.

The Kings are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.

The Mavericks are 4-9-1 ATS in their last 14 Friday games.

The Mavericks are 3-7 ATS in their last ten games overall.

The Over is 5-1 in Kings last six vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

The Under is 5-0-1 in Mavericks last six games as a favorite of 5.0-10.5.

The Over is 5-0 in the last five meetings in Dallas.

The Over is 6-1 in the last seven meetings.

Analysis: While the Mavericks have been mediocre at best against the spread this season, I say they come back from last night’s tough loss with an emphatic victory over the Kings in order to stay near the top of the tight western conference standings. However, I think the best bet for this matchup is to take the ‘Over’.

NBA Free Picks: Over 201½ Total Points/Dallas – 9½ Points

08:35 PM EST NBA Lines

Sacramento Kings +9½ -110

Dallas Mavericks -9½ -110

Over 201 -110

Under 201 -110

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