Posted on 4/24/2008 5:29:20 PM

NBA Basketball Wagering – Wizards Talk the Talk to Willing Cav’s

By Eric Williams

If the Washington Wizards, (43-41 SU, 46-38 ATS, 45-39 O/U), played anywhere near as good a game as they talked prior to beginning of this series, the Wizards likely wouldn’t be staring at a 2-0 deficit to the Cleveland Cavaliers, (47-37 SU, 39-45 ATS, 38-44-2 O/U) and their resident superstar, LeBron James, whom Wizards shooting guard DeShawn Stevenson idiotically called “overrated” prior to the start of this series.

The Wizards have been beaten in every way imaginable during the opening two games of the series despite their new defensive tactics of fouling James hard whenever he drives to the basket.

"I don't expect anything to change," Wizards all-star forward Antawn Jamison admitted on Wednesday. "We're going to continue to play hard and continue to protect our rim."

The series has turned so physical that James even resorted to pugilistic jargon to explain the series before realizing how his comments could be misinterpreted.

 

"If they hit us with a punch, we have to be able to counter their punch," said James. "Uh, not literally. Not literally. Let me change my words. If they make a few shots, we have to be able to counter their attack and move on."

 

Wizards head coach Eddie Jordan said the Cavaliers are doing a better job of disguising their hard fouls to look as if they are actually going for the ball, whereas Wizards center Brendan Haywood was ejected in Game 2 for basically shoving James in mid-air, extending both arms in a clear pushing motion.

 

"It seems like watching the fouls they gave on us - pretend you're going to block the ball and throw your body at the layup guy," Jordan said, "so that's a good technique."

 

While the Wizards have three all-star caliber players on its roster to match up against James, Jordan said his team lacks discipline on offense.

 

"Offensively, we look horrible," Jamison said, "not disciplined enough to make them play defense at all. Game 2, I think we tried to do too much on our own."

 

Cavaliers veteran forward said the Washington’s passion for fouling in this series is actually hurting their normally fluid offense, which was ranked 14th in the league during the regular season, averaging 98.8 points per game.

 

"It is taking them out of their game," Cavaliers forward Joe Smith said. "Because it is putting us on the line a lot more, so that is kind of taking away their transition baskets."

 

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends followed by my NBA Wagering Free Picks:

 

The Cavaliers are 4-0 ATS in their last four Conference Quarterfinals games.

 

The Cavaliers are 24-8-1 ATS in their last 33 road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of greater than .600.

 

The Wizards are 8-2 ATS in their last ten games playing on two days rest.

 

The Wizards are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games as a home favorite of 5.0-10.5.

 

The Under is 4-0 in Cavaliers last four when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

 

The Under is 5-0 in Cavaliers last five games as an underdog of 5.0-10.5.

 

The Over is 11-0 in Wizards last eleven games as a home favorite.

 

The Over is 11-0 in Wizards last eleven home games vs. a team with a losing road record.

 

The Cavaliers are 4-1 ATS in the last five meetings.

 

The Over is 6-2 in the last eight meetings in Washington.

 

The Favorite is 6-2 ATS in the last eight meetings.

 

Analysis: After genuinely believing the Wizards could win this series, LeBron James has helped reality kick back in for me by reminding me that the Wizards have perennially been one of the worst defensive teams in the league under Eddie Jordan. While I like the Wizards to win this game at home, fueled by their home crowd and a better performance from their three star players, I just don’t see a six-point win for Washington. Cleveland’s stellar defense and an overpowering James should be enough to help the Cavaliers cover the spread if not win outright once again. I also like the ‘Over’ in a big way in this matchup.

NBA Free Picks: Over 189½ Total Points/Cavaliers +5 Points

08:00 PM EST NBA Lines

Cleveland Cavaliers +5 -110

Washington Wizards -5 -110

Over 189½ -110

Under 189½ -110

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