posted April 2, 2008 at 20:47 in NBA Articles
NBA Basketball Betting - Golden State vs. Dallas
Golden State Warriors (+ 4.5) vs. Dallas Mavericks (- 4.5)
How big is this game tonight between the Golden State Warriors and the Dallas Mavericks? The Warriors, who upset the Mavs in last years’ NBA playoffs are exactly one game behind the Mavs in the Western Conference Playoff standings. Check this out - - if the Golden State Warriors beat the Mavericks tonight then there will be a three team tie for the final two spots in the Western Conference playoffs. The Denver Nuggets, Warriors and Mavs will all have a record of 46 and 29.
But will the Warriors do it? Against the BetUS spread the Warriors have been so-so lately. They’ve gone 5 and 5. That includes a 10 point win against Dallas two games ago. Could they do it again? One thing that’s nice about the Warriors is the fact that they are 19 and 18 against the BetUS spread on the road. That means they always come to play.
Dallas has been much better than I thought since losing Dirk Nowitzki. They’re actually 2 and 2 straight-up since Dirk went down and 1 and 3 against the BetUS spread. Again, not great, but I expected this team to just fold completely. Here are more trends.
The Golden State Warriors are 4 and 0 against the spread in their last 4 games following a straight-up loss.
The Golden State Warriors are 6 and 2 against the spread in their last 8 games following an against the spread loss.
The Dallas Mavericks are 4 and 1 against the spread in their last 5 games following an against the spread win.
The Over is 9 and 2 in the Dallas Mavericks’ last 11 games versus a team from the NBA Pacific Division.
The Over is 9 and 2 in the Golden State Warriors’ last 11 games playing on no days of rest.
The BetUS over/under in this game is 215 points. I actually love the over in this game. The last time these two teams met the total was 218. That’s a 3 point difference. It’s going to be very difficult for the Mavericks not to get into a run and shoot game with the Golden State Warriors.
The Warriors are very good at speeding the game up. Against the San Antonio Spurs in their last, the Warriors only scored 92 points, but San Antonio laid down 116. That’s a lot for the Spurs who prefer to play in the high 80’s or low 90’s.
The Warriors have given up 119 to Denver, 123 and 111 to the Lakers, 122 to Sacramento and 109 to the Houston Rockets in 5 of their past 10 games. That spells over to me!
The key is placing a winner against the spread in our parlay. Why not take a big swing and put some dollars on the Golden State Warriors’ money-line? The BetUS money-line is Golden State Warriors + 170 to win this game straight-up. I like that. Golden State has enough going for them to cause the upset.
The BetUS Over/Under is 215 points in the Golden State Warriors vs. Dallas Mavericks game.
I’m playing a parlay with the Golden State Warriors’ money-line - - + 170 - - to the BetUS over.
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