Posted on
4/29/2008 5:34:14 PM
NBA Basketball Playoff Betting - Utah at Houston
By Charles Jay
WHAT: Game 5 of Western Conference playoff series
WHO: Utah Jazz (54-28 SU, 46-36 ATS) at Houston Rockets (55-27 SU, 47-33-2 ATS) - Regular season records
WHERE: Toyota Center in Houston
WHEN: Tuesday, April 29 at 9:30 PM ET
BetUS NBA basketball betting odds: Houston -2, Total 182
Here are some of the NBA betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
* UTAH has won nine of its last 13 games SU
* UTAH has covered nine of its last 12 games
* UTAH has won three of its last seven road games SU
* UTAH has covered four of its last five road games
* UTAH has played seven of its last ten games UNDER the total
* UTAH has played four of its last five road games UNDER the total
* HOU has lost five of its last seven games SU
* HOU has won five of its last seven home games SU
* HOU has covered four of its last six home games
* HOU has played seven of its last nine games UNDER the total
In the HEAD-to-HEAD NBA basketball betting trends:
* UTAH has won five of the last six meetings SU
* UTAH has covered nine of the last 12 meetings
* UTAH has covered the last five meetings as the road team
* The last three meetings in Houston have gone UNDER the total
* UTAH has had the shooting edge in each of the last six meetings
* UTAH has had the rebounding edge in seven of the last nine meetings
* HOU has made more three-pointers in six of the last eight meetings
If we'd have told you that the Utah Jazz would go 0-for-14 from three-point range, would have ten assists less than their season average, would be outscored in the second unit, and would score more than 21 points in only one quarter, you'd probably think they wouldn't have had a very good chance to win Game 4 of their series against the Houston Rockets. But the fact is, they did.
And the reason they did is because they were able to force bad shots from guards Tracy McGrady, Rafer Alston and Bobby Jackson, who hit just 30% between them, and because they have extracted an edge on the boards with their front line people. Dikembe Mutombo has not been able to play more than 19 minutes in the last three games, and as a result of all this Mehmet Okur has 45 rebounds in those games, complemented by Carlos Boozer, who has made up for some shaky shooting with 27 caroms in the last two. Utah balanced the offense very well, with six players in double figures in Game 4, and even though they have been held below their season shooting average in the last three games, they have also held Houston below their .448 season field goal percentage in each of the four games.
Utah was clearly not at its best on the road this season, winning and covering 17 of its 41 games. Their two wins/covers at Houston in this series happened without Rafer Alston being available for the Rockets. Since Alston returned, though, Houston has covered the last two. The fact is, Alston can shoot, and Bobby Jackson can't, at least not in this series (29% overall - 15% from beyond the arc). Carl Landry is compensating for the absence of a backup center by playing with great energy, bringing down THIRTEEN offensive rebounds in the last two contests.
Utah's three-point prowess (or lack of same) isn't a major factor here, but we can expect something more consistent out of Houston's starting backcourt. The Rockets have ability to rebound here and send this series back to Salt Lake City for Game 6. We'll take Houston, the two-point favorite in the NBA playoff basketball betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: HOUSTON
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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com is a freelance writer and handicapper who not only can make his shots from the top of the key, but also contributes with gusto to the BetUS Locker Room)