Posted on 4/25/2008 3:30:02 PM

NBA Basketball Playoff Betting – Mavs Look To Climb Against Hornets

By Eric Williams

While the Dallas Mavericks, (51-33 SU, 35-45-4 ATS, 42-40-2 O/U) are back in the comfy confines of their home arena for Game 3 of their first round playoff matchup against the New Orleans Hornets, (58-26 SU, 52-30-2 ATS, 42-40-2 O/U), the Mavericks, to a man, say they have to find a way to stop Hornets all-star point guard Chris Paul or they know their season will be over almost as fast as Paul has dished out assists in this series.

"It's been too easy," Mavs forward Dirk Nowitzki said Thursday. "We've got to be a little more proactive on him and see if we can get the ball out of his hands some. If not, just move up on him and make it a little harder on him. We'll see how that works."

Paul has roasted and toasted the underachieving Mavericks in the BetUS Sportsbook to the tune of 33.5 points and 13.5 assists per game while literally doing whatever he pleases on the basketball court.

Paul’s theatrics have already become the stuff of legend as he is the first player in league history to record at least 30 points and 10 assists in his first two career playoff games in leading the Hornets to a an emphatic 127-103 victory on Wednesday, three days after helping New Orleans to a 104-92 victory.

Paul has become the first player to accomplish the feat since Phoenix Suns two-time MVP Steve Nash did it to the Mavericks himself back in 2005.

The lightning-quick point guard, for one, welcomed any changes the Mavericks may throw at him over the course of the next two games.

"There's only so many different things you can do in basketball," he said. "Whatever they're doing, we've adjusted to it. We've had 82 regular-season games to see what different teams try and that's what it's all about, making adjustments."

The Hornets haven't won in Dallas since January of 1998, but with Paul leading the way, no one on the Hornets current roster seems to care about past history.

"This is a totally different animal that we're facing, totally different atmosphere and a whole lot more at stake," Hornets coach Byron Scott said. "So right now, as far as we're concerned, it's 0-0 as far as playing them in their arena."

Mavericks small forward Josh Howard seemed to come up with the best idea for the Mavericks to try and slow down Paul.

"It's simple," Howard said. "Chris is the head of the snake. We've got to figure out a way to stop him."

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends followed by my NBA Betting Picks.

The Hornets are 10-1-1 ATS in their last 12 after allowing 100 points or more in their previous game.

The Hornets are 6-1 ATS in their last seven Conference Quarterfinals games.

The Mavericks are 4-1-2 ATS in their last seven Friday games.

The Mavericks are 37-17-1 ATS in their last 55 vs. NBA Southwest.

The Over is 4-0 in Hornets last four when their opponent allows 100 points or more in their previous game.

The Over is 4-0 in Mavericks last four vs. a team with a winning S.U. record.

The Favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings.

The Home team is 6-0 ATS in the last six meetings.

Analysis: I keep telling fans, friends and bettors that the Dallas Mavericks are softer than one of the new “Chewy Chips Ahoy” cookies and will never win anything of consequence as long as their best player s a seven-foot jump shooter and the team has no low post presence whatsoever (besides reserve power forward Brandon Bass). While I think the Mavericks will win this game because they are playing at home, I think the very serious New Orleans Hornets will cover the five-point spread while possibly winning this game outright. Just because the Mavericks are playing at home doesn’t mean they’re going to figure out a way to stop Chris Paul tonight, particularly when no team has been able to accomplish that feat all season long. I also like the ‘Over’ in a really big way tonight, even morose than the Mavericks to win outright. Take the ‘Over’ and the Hornets to cover the spread.

NBA Free Picks: Hornets +5 Points/Over 196 Total Points

08:00 PM EST NBA Odds

New Orleans Hornets +5 -110

Dallas Mavericks -5 -110

Over 196 -110

Under 196 -110

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