Posted on 3/18/2008 3:18:08 PM

NBA Basketball Betting - What’s Eating Gilbert?

By BetUS Staff

It isn’t too often NBA betting turns into a poker game. This is a very corporate league, and players are fined if they don’t say the right things during their mandatory press conferences (see: Rasheed Wallace). But Gilbert Arenas is not your typical NBA player.

Washington Wizards supporters are busy trying to parse Arenas’ latest report on the status of his surgically repaired left knee. The All-Star point guard originally set a return date of Mar. 2, but has yet to return to action. Now Arenas has told the Associated Press that doctors want him to “ramp it back up – go full speed” following the results Monday’s MRI.

All well and good, but when will he actually return? Arenas gave no indication – or rather, indicated several possibilities, including not returning at all before hitting the free-agent market in the offseason. “That is the smartest thing to do, let’s be honest,” Agent Zero told the AP on Monday.

That’s quite a tell. It’s also consistent with other things Arenas has said in response to rumors that he will sit out the remainder of the season rather than risk re-injuring his knee just before what should be a giant payday. Arenas himself told the Washington Post just as much: “I'm holding a $100-million lottery ticket and the only way I can lose it is by going out and getting injured.”

Without a top-flight guard like Arenas, Washington would find life difficult in the playoffs – which the No. 6 Wizards should make at 33-32 (37-28 ATS), 5.5 games up on the ninth-place Atlanta Hawks at press time with fewer than 20 games remaining in the regular season. But the Wiz have proven resilient without their superstar and his MVP-quality numbers. Although the gimpy Arenas was still good for 20.4 points and 5.4 assists per 36 minutes in his eight games this year, Washington was 3-5 (4-4 ATS) in those contests before Arenas limped off the floor. The Wizards are highly lucrative since then at 33-24 ATS.

As a combo guard with a gunner’s mentality, Arenas’ game falls apart when poor shot selection takes hold. The Hibachi was firing up a career-low 39 percent from the field during his eight-game stint, causing his Roland Rating to plummet from plus-8.9 to plus-2.5. The yeoman work of point men Antonio Daniels and Roger Mason in support of stars Antawn Jamison and Caron Butler has been superb, but less flashy, leading Washington to success.

If there is something good for Washington fans to take from Arenas’ comments, he does say he wants to be an “assist man” if he returns. Like Kobe Bryant in Los Angeles, Arenas has occasionally bristled at being called a ball hog. If he’s genuine about distributing the ball, and about wanting to play this year, Washington has a bright future. Check the NBA Betting odds list to see what the market thinks.

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