Posted on 4/18/2008 5:30:52 PM

NBA Basketball Betting Preview – Spurs vs. Suns

By Charles Jay

NBA Western Conference Playoffs

SAN ANTONIO SPURS (56-26 SU, 38-44 ATS) vs. PHOENIX SUNS (55-27 SU, 40-39-3 ATS)

BetUS NBA Betting Odds

Series Price

SAN ANTONIO -145

PHOENIX +115

The Schedule:

Game 1 — April 19, Suns at Spurs, 3:00PM (ABC/R)

Game 2 — April 22, Suns at Spurs, 9:30PM (TNT)

Game 3 — April 25, Spurs at Suns, 10:30PM (ESPN)

Game 4 — April 27, Spurs at Suns, 3:30PM (ABC/R)

Game 5 (if necessary) — April 29, Suns at Spurs, TBD

Game 6 (if necessary) — May 1, Spurs at Suns, TBD

Game 7 (if necessary) — May 3, Suns at Spurs, TBD (TNT)

The dynamic for the Suns is different with Shaquille O'Neal now a part of the lineup. Unlike a team like Cleveland, which had to integrate a lot of players into its rotation after a late trade, Phoenix went through some rough spots with O'Neal at first but now seems to have timed things well to make a playoff run with some very useful size. The Suns won three of four games against the Spurs this season, and both of the games in which Shaq was available to them.

The matchup problem for San Antonio is somewhat obvious; Phoenix now has two big threats down low, compared to just one for the Spurs. And Tim Duncan, a perennial member of the NBA's All-Defensive team, can't possibly guard both Shaq and Amare Stoudamire (25.3 ppg, 9.2 rpg, 59% FG's), whose game took on the expected elevation when he was finally complemented up front. Duncan is no slouch, obviously (19.4 ppg, 11.4 rpg), and there is enough balance in the lineup when Manu Ginobili (19.6 ppg) comes off the bench. But Ginobili needs to be healthy for the whole route (he's been bothered with a groin injury). Robert Horry is hurting, and Brent Barry is out. This cuts into the depth of the defending champs.

Phoenix can throw waves of players at the opponent. And with Grant Hill proclaiming himself healthy enough to play, that makes it better. the Suns could at one time have four players on the floor who hit 50% or better this season (as a team, they were first with 50% overall). Steve Nash is almost 48% from beyond the arc, and has a 3-to-1 assist/turnover ratio. Even though O'Neal allows them to be more effective in half-court sets, the Suns still run, and that can upset the Spurs at times.

It is obvious that San Antonio knows how to get it done, while the rap on Phoenix is that it hasn't. And the Spurs were strong against the number last year, going 14-5-1 ATS in the post-season (30-17 ATS as a home fave the last five years). But San Antonio wasn't as good defensively this season as it was in the past (44.4% FG's allowed) and they might be a little thin.

The question is: can the Suns finally get over the hump? With Shaq looming as the possible missing ingredient, my answer in this case is - yes.

JAY'S PREDICTION:

PHOENIX (+115) IN SEVEN GAMES

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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com is a freelance writer and handicapper who not only can make his shots from the top of the key, but also contributes with gusto to the BetUS Locker Room)