Posted on
5/2/2008 7:02:12 PM
NBA Basketball Betting – Pistons vs. Magic
By Charles Jay
NBA Eastern Conference Semifinals
DETROIT PISTONS (59-23 SU, 46-35-1 ATS) vs. ORLANDO MAGIC (52-30 SU, 51-29-2 ATS)
BetUS NBA Basketball Betting matchup:
This series represents a pretty interesting clash in styles, as Detroit is the side that would like to keep things in the half court, executing plays with a team that has essentially been together for quite some time now, while Orlando would prefer to step things up a bit, and will shoot much more from the outside with outside bombers like Hedo Turkoglu and Rashard Lewis. Orlando made 9.8 three-point shots per game, which is the most in the NBA.
That would appear to be problematic for Flip Saunders' team, which did not have to worry about too many long-range perimeter shots from the Philadelphia 76ers in the first playoff round, and therefore was able to collapse its defense more than usual. But Detroit nonetheless has some matchup advantages, which have manifest themselves in 14 straight-up wins in the last 17 meetings. Don't kid yourself - the Pistons can defend out on the perimeter; they have yielded just 33% shooting from beyond the arc, which is second best in the league.
A big question here involves whether the Pistons will go to sleep, and for how many games. In blowing a second-half lead against Philly in Game 1 of the previous series, they brought up a lot of questions about themselves. And those questions are legitimate; this is a team that has been known to go into prolonged shooting slumps, and prior to hitting a sizzling 58% over the last two games against the Sixers, they had shot 41.5% in the previous two - with very little in the way of three-point KO power.
Dwight Howard, who led the league in rebounds and had three 20-20 games, including 21 rebounds in the first series clincher against Toronto, was held under his season averages against the Pistons this year, scoring 17.3 points a game with 10.8 rebounds. If Detroit collapses on him, that opens up things for people like Lewis, who hit just 25% threes against Toronto but was 41% during the regular schedule, and Jameer Nelson, who was 50% from three-point range against the Raptors, nailing 11-of-22.
Orlando was an outstanding road team this season, winning and covering 27 of 41 games away from home. That has to play a part in the playoffs. And they did win on February 19 at the Palace by a 103-85 score when the Pistons nodded off.
Detroit brings a huge edge in playoff experience, and with the half-court oriented game they are much more suited to playoff action. The Pistons have allowed 90.1 points a game, which is best in the league, and they will put more pressure on Orlando's outside shooters than did Toronto. But Howard, who has taken quantum leaps which each passing year, creates a very difficult matchup for anyone on the Detroit side. that includes Antonio McDyess (just getting over a broken nose), Rasheed Wallace or Jason Maxiell. What eventually makes the difference here is that Orlando's guards don't have enough size or defensive prowess to control Detroit's backcourt.
Sure, Detroit will have an off-night or two, and they will leave the door wide open for Orlando, which could potentially steal a game at Auburn Hills. But the Pistons, despite a struggle, will advance.
JAY'S PREDICTION: DETROIT IN SIX GAMES
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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com is a freelance writer and handicapper who not only can make his shots from the top of the key, but also contributes with gusto to the BetUS Locker Room)