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posted April 1, 2008 at 19:41 in NBA Articles

Phoenix Suns (+ 6.5) vs. Denver Nuggets (- 6.5)

The Denver Nuggets blew a 19 point first-half lead in their game last night against the Phoenix Suns. The Suns roared back and covered a – 5.5 BetUS spread. These two teams also shattered the BetUS over/under that settled around 236 points. Could we get some déjà vu going in this game?

Maybe, the Suns are a fantastic team. It will be a shame if these guys have to play the Utah Jazz in the first-round of the NBA playoffs. Utah is actually the one team that the Suns do not match-up well with. Against everybody else, except the Boston Celtics, the Suns have shown that they can hold their own.

Denver has some thinking to do. Giving up a 19 point lead is not a good thing. It might affect them mentally in this game. Against the BetUS spread the Nuggets have done very well lately going 7 and 3 in their last 10. This is a key game for Denver. They have to keep pace with the Dallas Mavericks and Golden State Warriors who are one game ahead of them. Luckily for the Nuggets, Golden State plays Dallas tonight. That means that the Nuggets could tie one of those teams, with a win, for the last playoff spot in the Western Conference. Here are more trends.

The Phoenix Suns are 7-0-1 in their last 8 games versus a team from the Western Conference.

The Denver Nuggets are 8 and 1 in their last 9 games as the favorite.

The Denver Nuggets are 13 and 3 in their last 16 games as a favorite of between 5 and 10.5 points.

The Over is 5 and 0 in the Phoenix Suns last five games on the road as an underdog.

The Suns need to win but Denver needs to win more than the Suns do. Denver is an excellent home team going 23 and 14 against the BetUS spread this season. The Suns expended a lot of energy last night. I’m not sure if they can do the same thing tonight.

I actually like Denver in this game. I’m chilly on the BetUS over/under again, at 235 ½ points, even though these two teams proved me wrong last night. Denver tried to run against the Suns last night and we saw what happened. Expect Nuggets’ coach George Karl to tell his fellas to slow things down a bit, a lot of Allen Iverson trying to get to the hole for cheap fouls, a lot of Carmlo Anthony doing the same, and Marcus Camby roaming the middle to slow down Amare Stoudemire.

Phoenix, with old man Steve Nash and grandpa Shaq, might take the night off. Why not? They need to get some rest for the playoffs.

I’m betting on the Denver Nuggets to cover the spread.

The BetUS NBA line is Denver Nuggets – 6.5 against the spread at home versus the Phoenix Suns.

The Suns were spectacular last night. The Nuggets could be spectacular tonight. I’m taking the Nuggets.

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