Posted on 4/12/2008 2:17:39 PM

NBA Basketball Betting - Milwaukee at Boston

By Charles Jay

WHO: Milwaukee Bucks (26-52 SU, 34-43-1 ATS) at Boston Celtics (62-16 SU, 48-28-2 ATS)

WHERE: TD Banknorth Center in Boston

WHEN: Friday, April 11 at 7:35 PM ET

BetUS NBA betting odds: Boston -14.5, Total 197

In the HEAD-to-HEAD NBA betting trends:

* MIL has covered 12 of the last 17 meetings

* BOS has won five of the last seven meetings SU

* MIL has covered six of the last eight meetings as the visitor

* Four of the last six meetings in Boston have gone UNDER the total

* BOS has had the shooting edge in five of the last seven meetings

* MIL has had the rebounding edge in four of the last six meetings

* MIL has made more three-pointers in four of the last five meetings

Milwaukee has not been a defensive-minded team, yielding 47.6% shooting to the opponent. The Bucks are averaging 12.8 offensive rebounds and 6.6 steals per contest. Also:

* MIL has lost 14 of its last 17 games SU

* MIL has played 18 of its last 25 games OVER the total

* MIL has covered five of its last 17 road games

* MIL has lost 10 of its last 11 road games SU

* MIL has played nine of its last 12 road games OVER the total

Boston is the most difficult team to score on in the NBA, allowing just 90.3 points a game. The Celtics have surrendered just 41.9% shooting, which is the league's best as well. Also:

* BOS has covered six of its last eight games

* BOS has won seven of its last eight games SU

* BOS has covered four of its last five home games

* BOS has won 15 of its last 17 home games SU

* BOS has played five of its last seven home games UNDER the total

Milwaukee has miserable stats, especially on defense, and they score only 94 points a game on the road. But the Bucks showed they had no quit in them when they came back from a 25-point second-half deficit to tie the Celts and send Tuesday's game into overtime, at which point the Boston bench did manage to rise to the occasion and pull out a 107-104 victory. Eddie House expressed a lot of disappointment in the way the second unit performed that night, but Boston went out the next night and lost by 14 points at the Verizon Center against the Wizards, with the bench shooting just 7-for-21.

We had our doubts about the Celtic reserves at the season's outset, but they earned our trust over the course of the year. However, right now we don't know if we can count on this group to maintain or extend a lead. And there is no way of knowing how much work the "Big Three" is going to get. Sam Cassell and Scott Pollard have been sitting, and there seems to be more of a concern about keeping this team in one piece as it tries to take advantage of a home court edge throughout the playoffs.

That would seem to leave the door open for a Bucks team that is eager to atone for that OT loss, but Mo Williams' abdominal strain may force him out, and Charlie Villanueva, who scored 38 for the team the other night against Toronto, has been stopped cold by Boston's defense, averaging just six points on 25% shooting in three meetings.

If House is a leader on this second unit, he'll get a better effort out of them this time, and so we'll lean slightly to the Celts, the 14.5--point favorites in the BetUS NBA basketball betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: BOSTON

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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com is a freelance writer and handicapper who not only can make his shots from the top of the key, but also contributes with gusto to the BetUS Locker Room)