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posted March 31, 2008 at 16:24 in NBA Articles

Denver Nuggets (+ 5.5) vs. Phoenix Suns (- 5.5)

Tip-off: 10:00 pm est.

The Denver Nuggets travel to Phoenix to take on a Suns team that slowed down some last week. Two straight losses against the two best teams in the Eastern Conference, the Detroit Pistons and the Boston Celtics, put things in perspective for the Suns. They finished up their East Coast swing by taking out the Philadelphia 76’ers, a cover against the BetUS spread, and the New Jersey Nets, a loss against the BetUS spread by half a point. In their last 10 games the Suns have gone 6-3-1 against the BetUS spread.

Denver has been on fire lately. They’ve gone 8 and 2 against the BetUS spread. They did lose their last game against the Golden State Warriors. It was a game that they needed to win as the Nuggets are battling both Golden State and the Dallas Mavericks for a playoff spot. Here are more trends.

The Denver Nuggets are 5 and 1 against the spread in their last 6 games versus a team from the Western Conference.

The Phoenix Suns are 5 and 0 against the spread in their last 5 games at home.

The Over is 4 and 1 in the Denver Nuggets last 5 games as an underdog on the road.

The Over is 5 and 1 in the Suns last 5 games as a favorite on the road.

Whenever the Denver Nuggets, who scored 168 points against the Seattle Supersonics in a game this season, are mentioned in the same breath as the Phoenix Suns, NBA bettors best look at the over/under. The BetUS over/under in this game is a ridiculous 236.5. That equates to around 118 points from each team.

I don’t see it. Sure, both teams could light up the scoreboard, but I do think that Mike D’Antoni sees Denver as a team that he can utilize Shaq against. Let Shaq do his thing on the post and then watch as Amare Stoudemire and Steve Nash play a two man game to secure a Phoenix victory.

Now, I’m not saying that this game won’t go over. I’m just saying that the BetUS line is ridiculous. It’s way too high for me to even think about.

So, I’m going to pick a winner against the spread. That winner to me is the Phoenix Suns. Sure, they blew a lead against the Detroit Pistons on the road last week. Then, the mighty Boston Celtics absolutely throttled them in the second half of that game.

But the Suns have a lot going for them in this match-up. First, they are home after a four game trip out East. Second, Marcus Camby, Denver’s shut-down defensive wizard, can’t play both Shaq and Amare. That means that one of the Suns big men should have a great game.

Finally, the Suns bench, led by Leandro Barbosa, should find holes in that Denver defense.

The BetUS NBA Betting line is Phoenix Suns – 5.5 against the spread at home versus the Denver Nuggets.

I’m taking the Suns to cover.

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