Posted on
5/18/2007 8:02:36 PM
Makes “Sense” to Go With Derby Winner in Preakness
By Mike Dempsey
Kentucky Derby winner Street Sense takes on eight rivals in Saturday’s Preakness Stakes at Pimlico Race Course in Baltimore. A win by the Carl Nafzger trainee will send him to New York with a chance to win the Triple Crown.
Street Sense will face three of the foes he defeated in the Kentucky Derby along with five new shooters.
Despite the likely chalky price on the Derby winner, it’s going to be tough to take a stand against him in the Preakness.
PIM Race 12 Preakness S. G1 (6:15 ET)
#8 Street Sense 7/5
#5 King of the Roxy 12/1
#3 Circular Quay 8/1
#4 Curlin 7/2
#7 Hard Spun 5/2
Analysis: With a field of nine, it's going to be tough to get the $11.80 for the win or the $101.80 exacta we received in the Kentucky Derby. However, it's tough to go against #8 Street Sense, despite the short price in this spot. The colt appears to have come out of the Derby in good shape and looked rock solid in his one work since that victory.
The acceleration he showed last out around the far turn was awesome and, while it can be tough to come from far off the pace over the Pimlico racing strip, let's not forget our top pick was on the lead with a full furlong to run in the Derby. Tough to come up with a reason to think this colt will regress off his Derby win.
#5 King of the Roxy gives us hope we might snag a decent exacta payoff. The colt skipped the Derby, despite a runner up finish in the G1 Santa Anita Derby. Not encouraged by the way SA Derby winner Tiago ran in the Derby, but this colt appears to be sitting on a good one here in his third start of the year.
Earned a 103 Beyer two back winning the G2 Hutcheson at Gulfstream off a four month layoff. Regressed last out and looks ready to bounce back and his Hutcheson number puts him in the mix here, at least to land in the bottom half of the exacta.
#3 Circular Quay raced wide much of the trip and bumped with Stormello nearing the 5/16's and made a mild late run to finish sixth in the Derby. Effort was coming off a eight week break. Colt was a very impressive winner of the G2 La Derby two back after having traffic troubles three back in the G3 Risen Star off the bench, where the colt had to avoid a fallen jock at the top of the stretch and still finished with some interest. Johnny V. hops off our second choice to stick with this colt.
#4 Curlin suffered his first defeat in the Derby and ran a good race to finish third. Had to steady in the early going and finished well, while no threat to the top pair. Considering he came into the Derby with just three lifetime starts and no starts as a two year old, it was a solid effort.
Seems logical the seasoning will have done this guy some good and he should be ready for a top effort here. However, have a feeling this guy is going to get more than his fair share of attention at the windows and as the whiff of an underlay in here.
#7 Hard Spun ran a career best last out in the Derby in his runner up finish. There is some other early speed signed up here and likely Pino may try to take this guy back today and sit just off the pace. The colt won the G2 Lane's End two back with a tracking trip. I still think he could be vulnerable here at what likely is going to be too short a price.
Race rating: $$$
Wager: #8 to win at 8/5 or better.
Exacta key of: #5,#8 over #3,#4,#5,#7,#8.
Trifecta key: #5,#8 over #3,#4,#5,#8 over #3,#4,#5,#7,#8,#9.
Keep checking the Locker Room all through the Triple Crown season, as we will cover the trainers, horses and jockeys in each race. You can get your early Preakness Stakes odds at Pimlico Racetrack place your bets in now in the BetUS sportsbook in the Future / props section, under Horse Futures: 2007 Preakness Stakes.