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posted July 4, 2008 at 12:21 in MLB Betting Trends

Major League Baseball Online Wagering - Pirates at Brewers

by Eric Williams

The Pittsburgh Pirates, (40-44, 46-38 RL) have hovered near the .500 mark all season despite the fact that most baseball pundits didn’t expect the Pirates to do much of anything in 2008 - besides flounder in mediocrity that is.

The Pirates enter tonight’s matchup against the Milwaukee Brewers, (46-38, 40-44 RL) looking to pick up their third consecutive for the BetUS MLB online sports wagering community win after beating the Cincinnati Reds in back-to-back contests, including Wednesday’s convincing 9-5 road win.

The Pirates will turn to left-hander Tom Gorzelanny (6-6, 6.18) to lead them to victory while Gorzelanny looks to pick up his second consecutive victory and is coming off an impressive start in his last outing as he limited the Tampa Bay Rays to two runs on eight hits in six innings though he didn’t record a decision in Pittsburgh’s 4-3 loss on Sunday.

The Brewers look to rebound after falling to the Arizona Diamondbacks 6-5 on Thursday and will hand the ball to staff ace Ben Sheets (9-2, 2.83 ERA) as he looks to rebound from a poor start his last time on the mound.

Sheets was rocked by the Minnesota Twins on Sunday, allowing five runs on nine hits in seven innings of Milwaukee’s 5-0 loss.

"I thought I had way better stuff than that," said Sheets. "I didn't get away with any at all."

Sheets has struggled against the Pirates in his career, going 7-8 with a 2.97 ERA while Gorzelanny is 3-0 with a 3.19 ERA in six starts against the Brewers.

The Pirates learned on Wednesday that closer Matt Capps will be out for approximately eight weeks because of a shoulder injury.

"We're going through a tough stretch right now," said general manager Neal Huntington of Capps. "Matt's a gamer. We know he's going to be back."

Here is a look at tonight’s key online sports wagering trends followed by my analysis and MLB online betting Free Picks.

The Pirates are 3-7 in Gorzelanny’s last ten starts vs. National League Central.

The Pirates are 2-5 in Gorzelanny’s last seven starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

The Brewers are 4-1 in Sheets' last five starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

The Brewers are 8-2 in Sheets' last ten home starts vs. a team with a losing record.

The Over is 11-1 in Gorzelannys’ last 12 road starts vs. a team with a winning record.

The Over is 5-1 in Sheets' last six starts following a team loss in their previous game.

The Over is 4-0 in Gorzelanny’s last four starts vs. Brewers.

The Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings in Milwaukee.

Analysis: I know the Brewers have the better batting order and are at home in this matchup, which is why I like them to beat the feisty Pirates and Gorzelanny, though it could be closer than expected.

MLB Free Picks: Brewers 5 Pirates 3

02:05 PM EST MLB Odds

Pittsburgh Pirates

Tom Gorzelanny - L +1½ -110

Milwaukee Brewers

Ben Sheets - R -1½ -110

Over 8½ -120

Under 8½ EV

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