posted April 18, 2008 at 15:50 in MLB Free Picks
MLB Betting – Phillies Host Mets, No Love Lost Between Rivals
The Philadelphia Phillies, (8-8, 7-9 O/U) and New York Mets, (8-6, 7-7 O/U) have renewed their National League East rivalry in a big way after the Phillies beat the Mets for the NL East title in 2007. Online baseball bettors are licking there chops at this one. After the Mets fell apart in the regular season’s final three weeks and were overtaken by the hard-charging Phillies, who fulfilled shortstop Jimmy Rollins’ spring training prediction that the Phillies were the team to beat in the NL East despite nearly every analyst and fan in the country picking the Mets and their superior talent to win the division.
Not only did Rollins help the Phils make good on his prediction, but backed up his words in Muhammad Ali-type fashion by going out and backing up his bold statements by winning the National League MVP award.
The Mets entered the 2008 season looking for revenge in a big way after centerfielder Carols Beltran ‘pulled a Rollins’ by declaring the Mets as “the team to beat” this year.
After acquiring spectacular left-handed starting pitcher Johan Santana, (1-2, 3.05 ERA), the Mets seemed to solidify their status and the favorites to win the NL East, but the Phillies have plans on winning the division again this year and will be facing a Santana in tonight’s contest who is coming off a horrific performance in his last start after allowing five runs on six hits while mixing in two wild pitches and three homers allowed all in 6 2/3 innings while getting booed in his first home start as the Mets lost to the Milwaukee Brewers 5-3.
"I've seen it before," Santana told the team's official Web site. "That's not the first time I've seen it happen to a home player. We're not perfect. I wish we could do everything the way everybody wants, but we are human beings. We're going to make mistakes sometimes."
The Phillies are hoping Santana will make some mistakes while their own all-star starter, blossoming lefty, Cole Hamels, (2-1, 0.82) continues his terrific streak of starts this season.
Hamels is looking for his third consecutive win in the BetUS Sportsbook after allowing just one hit in a 7-1 victory over the Chicago Cubs at home on Saturday. Hamels has also given up just one earned run in each of his first two starts of the season.
"He's been doing real good, but I think he's going to get better," Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said. "In fact, I know he can."
The Phillies rocked the Houston Astros 10-2 on Thursday as left fielder Pat Burrell went 2-for-4 with a two-run homer on Thursday to increase his batting average to .373. His six home runs are tied for the major league lead.
The Mets beat the Washington Nationals 3-2 in 14 innings on Thursday as Damion Easley scored on a wild pitch from Nationals hurler Joel Hanrahan.
Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my analysis and MLB Gambling Free Picks:
Key Team Trends
The Mets are 5-0 in their last 5 vs. National League East.
The Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 games vs. a left-handed starter.
The Mets are 4-0 in their last 4 road games vs. a left-handed starter.
The Phillies are 5-0 in their last 5 Friday games.
The Phillies are 7-0 in their last 7 games as a home underdog.
The Phillies are 4-0 in Hamels' last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.
Key Over/Under Trends
The Under is 4-0 in Mets last 4 vs. National League East.
The Under is 5-0 in Mets last 5 games vs. a left-handed starter.
The Under is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 games as a favorite of -110 to -150.
The Over is 4-0 in Phillies last 4 after allowing 2 runs or less in their previous game.
Key Head-to-Head Trends
The Under is 7-3-1 in the last 11 meetings.
The Mets are 2-9 in the last 11 meetings.
The Mets are 0-5 in the last 5 meetings in Philadelphia.
Analysis: This matchup has all the making of a classic pitcher’s duel with two of the best starting pitchers in all of baseball going tonight. In the end, I’m taking the Fightin’ Phils to pull this one out by rocking some poor Mets reliever after Santana departs.
MLB Free Picks: Phillies 3 Mets 2
07:05 PM EST Baseball Odds
Johan Santana - L +1½ -210
Cole Hamels - L -1½ +175
Over 7½ -115
Under 7½ -105
National League
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