Posted on 4/4/2008 7:51:15 PM

MLB Sportsbook Betting Los Angeles Dodgers vs San Diego Padres

By D.S Williamson

I approach weekend games from a different perspective then my weekday games. Even though things speed-up in the world of sports on the weekend, things tend to slow down in the world of sports writing on the weekends. In other words the BetUS lines aren’t readily available. Neither are the at hand stats that are so important to our handicapping.

What that means, as far as Major League Baseball is concerned, is that we have to be very judicious in our analysis of each and every game. We are flying blind in one sense - - the lack of knowing exactly what the BetUS lines are - - but we are also being much more calculating then we usually would be if we had all of the stats at our fingertips.

In handicapping these weekend baseball games, I will do what I do when handicapping NBA games - - that is employ old school horse racing money-line techniques. Every professional horseplayer I know spends time creating a personal money-line - - the odds that he or she will accept on any given “contender” in the race. We will do the same thing here. Except instead of handicapping horses, we’ll be handicapping pitchers and teams.

Let’s get to it!

In this Saturday’s game between the Los Angeles Dodgers and the San Diego Padres the two scheduled pitchers are Brad Penny for the Los Angeles Dodgers and Jake Peavy for the San Diego Padres. Below are my personal wagering lines regarding this game.

Los Angeles Dodgers

Brad Penny + 1 ½ - 145 + 130 O 5

San Diego Padres

Jake Peavy - 1 ½ + 115 - 175 U 5

It’s fairly obvious by looking at these personal wagering lines where I believe the money will go. Not only that, but it’s also obvious where I think the game will go. In my mind betting on Brad Penny, even though he is the Dodgers’ ace, even though you may be receiving a run and a half, is not worth it.

Jake Peavy is too strong. Peavy should dominate the Dodgers in this game. He is, without doubt, one of the top, if not the top, pitcher in the National League. The 6ft 1” southern boy from Mobile, AL is an absolute monster. He has a lifetime ERA of 3.29. That’s fantastic.

Penny is no slouch but the Dodgers will find it difficult to score any runs against Peavy. Penny blanked the San Francisco Giants in the first start of his career, but he might find that performance difficult to repeat against an underrated Padres’ batting line-up.

The Padres are sincerely good this year. At the end Peavy might not be enough for them to win the N.L. West, but he should definitely be enough for them to win this outing.

I refuse to put myself in a box in this game. If I have to give up a run and a half on Peavy, but in exchange I’m getting at least + 115 or more, then that’s my bet. If, however, Peavy or the Padres are at – 175 or lower, then I’ll consider that as a wager.

If my predictions are way off, which happens at times, then I’ll look to the over/under. To me this is a BetUS Under play at 5 runs or less. Both guys can throw heat which means this could be one of those 2 to 1 games.

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