Posted on
4/3/2008 1:34:32 PM
MLB Betting Trends Pittsburgh Pirates at Atlanta Braves
By Eric Williams
While the Atlanta Braves, (1-2), have high hopes for this season after revamping their roster this past offseason, the Braves come into tonight’s contest against the Pittsburgh Pirates, (1-1), off a resounding 10-2 win over the Pirates looking for more of the same tonight.
Atlanta should have all the motivation it needs tonight when veteran major league hurler Mike Hampton takes the mound for the first time in nearly three seasons following two major elbow surgeries and the long rehabilitation that followed.
Hampton hasn't pitched since Aug. 19, 2005 when he developed back problems and found out shortly thereafter that he needed Tommy John surgery.
"My thought process was never that I wouldn't be back," Hampton told the team's official Web site. "I just wasn't sure what the date would be."
Hampton, in the final year of an eight-year $121 million contract is more than ready to go after all the time away from the game he loves.
"Put yourself in his shoes," Braves manager Bobby Cox said. "You like to play, you like to pitch, you like the competition - then, all of a sudden, it's taken away from you. It hurts."
Hampton is 10-3 with a 2.71 ERA in 16 career starts against the Pirates though many of the players on today’s team weren’t even in the majors when Hampton last faced them in 2003.
The Braves shouldn’t have many problems against mediocre Pirates starter Paul Maholm who went 10-15 last season in 29 starts, striking out 105 and walking 49 while posting a 5.02 ERA.
The left-hander went an even more dismal 4-8 on the road last season with a 6.14 ERA while allowing opponents to bat a whopping .328 with 15 homers.
Pittsburgh may also start Zach Duke. Another mediocre starter who went 3-8 for the Pirates last season in 19 starts covering 107.3 innings. Duke gave up 161 hits while striking out 41 and walking 25 with a 5.53 ERA.
Here is a look at tonight’s Key Trends, followed by my MLB Gambling Free Picks:
Key Pirates Trends
The Pirates are 4-1 in their last five vs. National League East.
The Pirates are 7-3 in their last ten road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400.
The Pirates are 17-35 in their last 52 road games.
Key Braves Trends
The Braves are 4-0 in their last four home games vs. a left-handed starter.
The Braves are 4-1 in their last five games vs. a left-handed starter.
The Braves are 9-3 in their last 12 home games.
Key Totals Trends
The Over is 4-0 in Pirates last four games vs. a left-handed starter.
The Over is 5-0 in Pirates last five road games vs. a left-handed starter.
The Over is 5-1 in Pirates last six road games vs. a team with a home winning percentage of less than .400.
The Under is 4-0 in Braves last four during game two of a series.
The Over is 5-1 in Braves last six Thursday games.
The Under is 4-1 in Braves last five overall.
Key Head-to-Head Trends
The Over is 5-1 in the last six meetings.
The Over is 4-1 in the last five meetings in Atlanta.
The Pirates are 20-42 in the last 62 meetings.
Analysis: No matter which hurler the Pirates start tonight, I say take the Braves for the emotion-filled victory behind a solid performance from Hampton.
MLB Free Picks: Braves 7 Pirates 3
07:10 PM EST MLB Lines
Pittsburgh Pirates
Zach Duke - L +1½ -155
Atlanta Braves
Mike Hampton - L -1½ +135
Over 9½ EV
Under 9½ -120
National League
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