Posted on
4/11/2008 7:53:29 PM
MLB Wagering Odds – Struggles Abound As Nationals Host Braves
By Eric Williams
While the Atlanta Braves, (3-6) were expected to push the Philadelphia Phillies and New York Mets for division supremacy in the National League East as well as sportsbook online betting consistency this season, the Braves have looked nothing like legitimate contenders in the early going and enter tonight’s matchup against the Washington Nationals, (3-7) riding a three-game losing streak that includes a convincing 12-6 loss to the Colorado Rockies on Wednesday.
While the Braves are struggling lately, their troubles are nothing compared with the Nationals, losers of seven straight games after opening the season with three straight wins, including a 3-2 season-opening win over the Braves.
The Nationals have dropped four games one-run during their losing streak, including a 4-3 loss to the Florida Marlins on Thursday night.
"We're just losing by one run," Washington center fielder Lastings Milledge said. "It's no big deal. ... There's 100-and-something games left."
Nationals manager Manny Acta also said his team doesn’t need dramatic changes at this early juncture of the regular season.
"Just because we're losing doesn't mean we're going to have to turn the lineup upside-down," Acta said. "What am I going to do, take Zimmerman out of the third hole because he's hitting (.209)? We've got to keep on working and we're going to get out of it."
The Braves starter will send Tim Hudson (1-0, 3.46 ERA) to the mound after dealing with an unexpected snow storm in Denver.
"I've never wanted to get rained out or snowed out or whatever, but I think this is one that I'm welcoming," Hudson said. "I think one more day will help out. Getting into some warmer weather and out of this climate will help me out, too.
"I'll be ready for tomorrow."
Nationals’ starter Matt Chico (0-1, 5.56) allowed four runs on eight hits in six innings of a 5-4 loss at St. Louis on Saturday, but is 2-2 in five career starts against the Braves with a 2.70 ERA
Here is a look at tonight’s key trends followed by my MLB Betting Free Picks:
Key Braves Trends
The Braves are 22-6 in their last 28 games following an off day.
The Braves are 5-2 in their last seven after allowing five runs or more in their previous game.
The Braves are 7-3 in their last ten vs. National League East.
Key Nationals Trends
The Nationals are 4-0 in their last four home games vs. a team with a road winning percentage of less than .400.
The Nationals are 5-2 in their last seven when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game.
The Nationals are 4-1 in Chico’s last five home starts vs. a team with a losing record.
Key Totals Trends
The Under is 5-0 in Braves last five road games with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
The Over is 4-0 in Braves last four games following an off day.
The Under is 6-0 in Braves last six games as a favorite of -151 to -200.
The Over is 10-1 in Nationals last eleven when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game.
The Over is 6-1 in Chico’s last seven starts overall.
The Over is 6-1 in Chico’s last seven starts on grass.
Key Head-to-Head Trends
The Under is 4-0-1 in Hudson’s last five starts vs. Nationals.
The Braves are 4-1 in Hudson’s last five starts vs. Nationals.
The Braves are 7-3 in the last ten meetings.
Analysis: Since someone has to win this game, I’m going with the Atlanta Braves and Tim Hudson despite Matt Chico’s ability to raise his performance against the Braves. The fact of the matter is that, while both teams are desperate for a victory, the Braves are the better ballclub.
MLB Free Picks: Braves 4 Nationals 2
07:35 PM EST MLB Odds
Atlanta Braves
Tim Hudson - R -1½ -110
Washington Nationals
Matt Chico - L +1½ -110
Over 8½ -120
Under 8½ EV
National League
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