Posted on 5/7/2008 2:01:53 PM

MLB Futures Betting – The Biggest Losers

By Charles Jay

Something for BetUS Sportsbook bettors to keep in mind - a manager (I forgot which one) once said, "You've got to be a pretty good pitcher to lose 20 games in a season." It may sound crazy to the uninitiated, but there may be a ring of truth to it. First of all, a pitcher has to be good enough to keep in the rotation and hand the ball over to every fourth or fifth day to even get enough opportunities to lose 20. Those who aren't will find themselves in the minor leagues, on waivers, or in the major league Siberia that is long relief.

And a pitcher doesn't necessarily have to be awful to lose twenty, or to lead the league in losses either. The performance of his team, particularly the offense, is a key factor. Many a pitcher has been a victim of non-support. Of course some are just bad and playing for bad teams, which is what we call the "losing exacta."

With that in mind, let's take a look at the field that has been out before us:

BetUS MLB Futures Odds

Player to lose most games in 2008 season

Barry Zito 10/1

Chad Billingsley 15/1

Joe Blanton 12/1

Boof Bonser 14/1

Matt Chico 8/1

Jason Jennings 9/1

Bronson Arroyo 15/1

Dave Bush 20/1

Kevin Correia 10/1

Tom Gorzelanny 15/1

Ted Lilly 15/1

Francisco Liriano 25/1

Gil Meche 25/1

Matt Morris 12/1

Brett Tomko 8/1

C.C Sabathia 18/1

Steve Trachsel 16/1

Justin Verlander 45/1

Jared Washburn 15/1

Odalis Perez 14/1

Mike Mussina 25/1

Kerry Wood 45/1

Let's start things off by crossing a few names off the list. Barry Zito of the Giants (10/1 at BetUS) has been sent to the bullpen after losing his first six decisions. I think he'll eventually be back in the rotation, but he'll lose enough turns to keep him out of the running. Matt Morris (12/1 at BetUS) was released by the Pirates, who were hoping he could pitch well enough to be trade bait. He is contemplating retirement and may come back with Pittsburgh as a coach. Kerry Wood (45/1 at BetUS) has been anointed the Cubs' closer, which keeps him out of danger of losing too many games, at least for now. Chad Billingsley of the Dodgers (15/1 at BetUS) has actually come around to pitch a couple of good games in a row. He's not going to be a candidate in the end. Joe Blanton (12/1 at BetUS) of Oakland has lost five games, but he is playing for a team that is probably too good for that to sustain itself; furthermore, I'm sure they would make changes in the rotation before letting him get too far. However, I will include the caveat that if the A's fold, and stick with him the whole way, he'll contend, because he eats innings and will get decisions.

C.C. Sabathia's five defeats happened early on; in his last three starts he's allowed five earned runs in 20-1/3 innings. last year's Cy Young winner looks like he's showing some of his familiar self, so his 18/1 posting at BetUS is most likely moot. Francisco Liriano (25/1 at BetUS), an All-Star in 2006, is too good to go to these depths. Kevin Correia of San Francisco (10/1 at BetUS) is on the disabled list with a left oblique strain and could be out a month. Ted Lilly (15/1 at BetUS) but in a great outing for the Cubs just recently, and his team is going to win enough games, even if by accident, to keep him out of contention. Certainly the same goes for Mike Mussina (25/1 at BetUS) who is now over the .500-mark and has allowed just five runs in his last 18 innings. Brett Tomko (8/1 at BetUS) could wind up losing a lot of games, but my feeling is that he'd be released by Kansas City first in favor of a younger arm.

Of the guys that are remaining after that process of elimination, here are my comments:

Steve Trachsel of Baltimore (16/1 at BetUS) is one of those guys where I didn't even realize he was still in the league until I saw him on this list. He's actually earned the "honors" before; leading the National League in losses in 1999, so you can't absolutely count him out, but my feeling is that the Orioles would get rid of him before he could do too much damage. Gil Meche (25/1 at BetUS) is a guy who will not be abandoned by the Royals, not after signing that big free agent contract before last season. If Kansas City goes into a swoon, he'll be around to take a pounding.

But the guys I "like" the best here are JASON JENNINGS (9/1 at BetUS), who has let quite a few runs cross the plate on him (8.56 ERA) and has gotten little offensive support (2.67 runs per game), but should be able to stick around the whole season with the Rangers because frankly, they really don't have very much in the way of starting pitchers; and MATT CHICO (8/1 at BetUS), who has failed to get through the fifth inning in any of his last three starts. Chico has a 6.87 ERA and lost each of his first five decisions. Until "erupting" for nine runs in his last start against Pittsburgh, Chico's Washington teammates had scored nine runs in his last five starts. The Nationals are averaging less than four runs per contest and have not been able to take advantage of the new, hitter-friendly Nationals Park. But opponents sure have. This team will lose a lot of games; struggle to score runs, and leave Chico out there, more often than not, to take a pounding. Washington is in the same boat as Texas in that its is starved for starting pitching, so they've got little choice but to go with Chico at this point.

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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com touches all the bases as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)