Posted on 5/17/2007 6:08:59 PM

MLB Betting – World Series Odds Brewing

By Hunter Kesey

What do the Boston Red Sox, New York Mets, and New York Yankees all have in common? Well, they’re all big-market teams, they all reside on the east coast, and they’re all disliked outside of their own jurisdictions. And they’re also the only teams who are currently listed with better ’07 World Series odds than the Milwaukee Brewers.

That’s right, the Milwaukee Brewers are currently pegged with the fourth-best title odds at BetUS.com. Right now you can take the Brew Crew at +800 odds to win the World Series when October rolls around; the Red Sox lead that list at +350 odds, with the Mets next up at +500 odds, and the Yankees sitting back in third position at +600 odds.

Of course, those +800 odds could be Milwaukee’s high-water mark this year if they can’t build on their early-season success. The Brewers were the hottest team in baseball through the first two weeks of May, winning nine of 11 games between May 1 and May 12. However, the bulk of those victories did come against the struggling St. Louis Cardinals, plus lesser-lights Pittsburgh and Washington; in their last two series against the Mets and the Philadelphia Phillies, the Brewers have had trouble picking up victories.

 

Still, a team only needs to get into the playoffs to have a real chance at winning the World Series, and being in the National League Central Division is a big plus for Milwaukee. The defending champion Cards haven’t looked like defending champions this year, while the Houston Astros and the Chicago Cubs haven’t looked like much more than .500 clubs. The Pittsburgh Pirates and the Cincinnati Reds weren’t given much of a chance in the preseason, and they certainly haven’t exceeded expectations.

Add it all up, and the Brewers are pegged as -165 favorites t   o win the NL Central in 2007 and advance to the postseason. The Cubs are next on that list at +200 odds, followed by the Cardinals (+600) and the Astros (+800). The Reds and Pirates are seen as true long-shots to come up big the rest of the way – they’re both listed at +1500 odds.

Milwaukee is also sitting high up on the odds list to win the National League pennant – they’ve risen to +400 on that prop at BetUS.com. That puts them behind only the Mets (+200), and slightly ahead of the Braves (+500), Dodgers (+500), and Cubs (+600). Other teams with decent NL pennant odds right now are the Padres (+800), Phillies (+1400), Astros (+1500), Diamondbacks (+1500), and Barry Bonds’ Giants club (+1500).

 

Well back at +2000 are the Cardinals, who are really feeling the effects of the starting-pitcher exodus they went through in the offseason. Toss in Chris Carpenter’s injury as well, and the Cards’ strength from last year (the rotation) has become a big weakness.

One of those defected pitchers, Jeff Suppan, is playing a big role for the Brewers’ starting staff this year. Suppan goes into the weekend with a 5-4 record and a solid 3.25 ERA. Fellow starters Chris Capuano and Claudio Vargas both have ERAs under 3.00, while ace Ben Sheets has bounced back from an early rough patch. Only Dave Bush (who enters the weekend with a 3-3 mark and a 5.47 ERA) has put up sub-par numbers. And closer Francisco Cordero has been the best reliever in the league so far.

At the plate, J.J. Hardy has been a revelation in Wisconsin, while Prince Fielder has shown no sign of a sophomore slump. In fact, Hardy and Fielder have been two of baseball’s top home-run hitters this season, and the team is hoping that their torrid batting can continue through the summer. In a weak division like the NL Central, a solid staff and a pair of big bats is more than enough to keep you in contention for first place.

Milwaukee will look to break out of their mini slump this weekend when they take on the Minnesota Twins in a three-game interleague series. The Brewers will then head out to the west coast for series against the Dodgers and the Padres starting on Monday night.

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