Posted on 4/18/2008 7:18:32 PM

MLB Baseball Betting – Sunday 2-Pack - Mets vs. Phillies – Brewers vs. Reds

By D.S Williamson

New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies

This is going to be an interesting game as the New York Mets send out who might be their top pitcher this year, Mike Pelfrey, against their hated rivals, the Philadelphia Phillies. Before you start laughing at me, let’s take a look at Pelfrey’s stats. He’s not nearly as heralded as Johann Santana or Pedro Martinez, but with Martinez out of action and Santana just pitching okay, Pelfrey has solidified himself as the man opposing batters should most fear when facing the Mets. He is 2 and 0 on the season with a super-solid 1.50 ERA. Pelfrey has given up only 10 hits and 2 runs in 2 games.

The Phillies will counter with Adam Eaton. The Phillies had beaten the Mets in nine straight games before dropping the last two to them. Eaton will try to turn that mini-losing streak to their rivals around on Sunday. This will be the final game in a three-game weekend series between the Mets and Phillies. Eaton has been okay this season. He has pitched in three no-decisions so far with an ERA of 4.12.

Here are my personal wager lines.

New York Mets

Mike Pelfrey – R - 1 ½ + 135 - 110 O 6 ½

Philadelphia Phillies

Adam Eaton – R + 1 ½ - 125 + 110 U 6 ½

Pelfrey is just pitching too good not to go off the favorite in this game. It will be Pelfrey, the visiting pitcher, who will have to give up the 1 ½ runs on the BetUS run line. I can almost guarantee that.

I also believe that the Mets will be favored straight-up to win this game. The Phillies believe that they are the team to beat in the N.L. East Division. That could all change after this series. I don’t like Adam Eaton in this match-up and I have doubts as to how well the Phillies will play against the Mets on both Friday and Saturday night.

If the Mets come out of this series with a sweep, expect them to keep rolling this season.

For this game, I’m gong to say that if Pelfrey does have to give up a run and a half for above even money odds, then that’s a good wager. Pelfrey is just pitching lights out right now.

I think he will step it up on Sunday. The Mets should get to Eaton and give Pelfrey at least the two run cushion he would need for us to win the run line bet.

I like Pelfrey in this game.

Milwaukee Brewers vs. Cincinnati Reds

First-pitch: 1:15 pm est.

The Milwaukee Brewers will conclude a weekend series against the Cincinnati Reds by sending Dave Bush to the mound. Bush is, without a doubt, the worst pitcher in the Brewers rotation. He is 0 and 3 on the season with an ERA of 7.02. He’s given up 18 hits, 14 runs and 1 home-run in 16.2 innings pitched. Bush might not find the going any easier on Sunday against a Reds team that can score runs in a hurry.

The Reds will counter with Aaron Harang. Harang has been fairly solid this season. His record is 1 and 2, but his ERA of 3.33 is actually very, very good. He’s also struck out 21 batters in 27 innings of work. The guy’s a work-horse. He has pitched in four games this season, already, and has given up only 11 runs in those four innings. Harang should have the upper-hand in this match-up.

Let’s take a look at my personal wager lines.

Milwaukee Brewers

Dave Bush – R + 1 ½ - 115 + 175 O 9 ½

Cincinnati Reds

Aaron Harang – R - 1 ½ + 125 - 190 U 9 ½

With Bush on the mound, there’s really only one wager to consider should the BetUS lines end up close to what mine are.

That’s the BetUS over. I just don’t believe that Bush will give up less then 6 runs in this game. That’s a lot of runs for one pitcher to give up. If Bush gives them up early, and the Reds can get to that Brewer bull-pen, then I expect the Reds to put up close from 7 to 9 runs all by themselves.

That means that the Brew-Crew will need to put up around 3 or 4 runs in order to insure an over game. That shouldn’t be a problem for the Brewers in this one. Harang is a very good pitcher, but he’s not a shut-down guy on the level of a Jake Peavy from San Diego or a Mike Pelfrey from the New York Mets.

The Brewers should put up a few runs in this game. Because Bush is pitching so badly, the BetUS over, even at 9 ½ should be a solid wager.

If the BetUS over is at 9 ½ or less, then I’ll be putting some dollars on the over.

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