Posted on 5/9/2008 8:49:24 PM

MLB Baseball Betting - Florida at Washington

By Charles Jay

BetUS MLB baseball sports betting matchup:

The Florida Marlins, who entered the weekend as the first-place team in the National League's East division, need to win all the "winnable" games they can in order to stay in the race with teams like the Mets, Phillies and Braves. One of those winnable games might be on Saturday night, as they take on the Washington Nationals at Nationals Park (natural turf) in an NL game set to begin at 7:10 PM ET

Andrew Miller (2-2, 7.96 ERA) takes the mound for the Marlins in this game, while the Nationals will send Tim Redding (4-2, 3.20 ERA) to the hill.

Here are some of the MLB Baseball betting trends as they relate to this matchup (numbers are good through Thursday's games - please adjust for Friday results)

* FLA has won five of its last six games

* FLA has played five of its last six road games UNDER the total

* WASH has won seven of its last 10 games

* WASH has won six of its last seven home games

* WASH has played seven of its last nine home games UNDER the total

In the HEAD-TO-HEAD baseball betting trends:

* FLA has won seven of the last eight meetings

* WASH has won seven of the last ten meetings as the home team

* Seventeen of the last 23 meetings in Washington have gone OVER the total

Florida is a team that has thrived on offense, which is different than Marlin teams of the past, since Dolphin Stadium (formerly Pro Player Stadium, formerly Joe Robbie Stadium) is generally known as a pitchers' park. Nonetheless, this team has hit 47 homers through Thursday, the second highest total in the major leagues. Mike Jacobs, Dan Uggla, Hanley Ramirez and Josh Willingham are all emerging as pretty strong candidates for All-Star consideration. Incidentally, Willingham (hitting .341) is currently on the DL, and Ramirez has been moved from leadoff to third in the order, which mioght improve Florida's power numbers a bit more.

Perhaps the best way to describe Andrew Miller is that he can't get many people out. The Marlin left-hander has allowed opposing batters to rack up a robust .382 average against him, and it might have been a good effort against San Diego last time out (May 4) that saved him from demotion to the bullpen. In that game, Miller allowed just four hit and two runs over six innings, and got 10 runs from the Florida offense to register his second victory of the season. In seven starts, however, Miller has yielded five earned runs or more four times, so he is susceptible to blowing up. Miller has started 34 innings, and has given up runs in 16 of them.

Tim Redding has been a rare bright spot for the Washington staff this season; in fact, he and John Lannan are the only members of the rotation who have won a decision in 2008. He's been a model of consistency, holding teams to three earned runs or less in every start but one, and in that game, though yielding four runs to this Marlin crew, he struck out 10, walked one and picked up the 6-4 victory. Redding was the victim in a 10-7 Florida win at Nationals Park on April 7, and gave up seven runs in four innings, though only one of those runs was earned. Redding has allowed five home runs, but has limited the opposition to a .211 batting average.

The Nats are averaging barely over four runs per contest, but in this game they have bay far the most reliable pitcher. Miller has good stuff and is considered a good prospect, but the consensus opinion is that he may be in the major leagues a little too soon. Washington has faced left-handed starters on 15 occasions, and is 8-7 in those games. We'll take the Nats in the BetUS Major League Baseball betting odds.

JAY'S PLAY: WASHINGTON

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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com touches all the bases as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)