Posted on
4/15/2008 3:25:35 PM
MLB Baseball Betting - Atlanta at Florida
By Charles Jay
BetUS MLB baseball betting odds: Atlanta -115, Florida -105, Total 10 (Under -115, Over -105)
The Florida Marlins (7-5) will try to bounce back after two straight defeats on Tuesday night when they take on the Atlanta Braves (5-7) in a National League game that gets underway at 7:10 PM ET at Dolphin Stadium in Miami.
Right-hander Jair Jurrjens (1-1, 4.38 ERA) will get that start for the Braves, while southpaw Scott Olsen (1-0, 4.61 ERA) takes the mound for the Marlins.
At BetUS Sportsbook, Atlanta is listed as a -115 favorite (Florida is -105), with a total of 10 runs (the Under is -115, while the Over is -105).
Here are some of the MLB betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
(NOTE: These trends also revert back to the 2007 season)
* ATL has lost four of its last six games
* ATL has played five of its last seven games UNDER the total
* ATL has lost seven of its last nine road games
* ATL has played eight of its last ten road games UNDER the total
* FLA has won four of its last six games
* FLA has won six of its last nine home games
* FLA has played four of its last six home games OVER the total
In the HEAD-TO-HEAD baseball betting trends:
* ATL has won five of the last six meetings
* Seven of the last ten meetings have gone OVER the total
* ATL has won four of the last six meetings as the road team
* Five of the last six meetings in Miami have gone OVER the total
Scott Olson has been serviceable thus far as a Florida Marlin starter, giving up seven earned runs in 13-2/3 innings. Hey, that's good by today's standards, anyway. Still, he's a long way to proving himself as "ace" material. He had an absolutely horrific outing last August against the Mets, who chased him after scoring six earned runs (10 total) on eleven hits in four innings.
His team batted around against Roy Oswalt & Co. for ten runs last Friday, but followed that with just one run in 18 innings en route to losing a pair to the last-place Astros over the weekend. Florida still holds on to a game and a half lead in the NL East, and even though they've done very well to stay above the .500 mark so far, that is a position that most people would agree is tenuous at best.
In limited duty with the Tigers last season, Jair Jurrjens' 1.14 WHIP ratio was very solid. This year's WHIP isn't there just yet (1.54), but Jurrjens shows an awful lot of promise. Look - he's had two pretty solid starts so far and there is reason to justify his inclusion in that Edgar Renteria trade.
One thing Jurrjens doesn't figure to lack for is run support. Atlanta is leading the league with 5.6 runs per game, and Florida has allowed more runs than anybody in the NL (5.8 per game, and 6.7 at home). This is a young staff that will take its lumps, and it is a big bridge between the starter on any given day and closer Kevin Gregg.
The price on Atlanta is reasonable. So we'll lay the -115 with the Braves in the BetUS Major League Baseball betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: ATLANTA (-115)
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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com touches all the bases as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)