Posted on
4/22/2008 5:27:33 PM
MLB Baseball Betting - Florida at Pittsburgh
By Charles Jay
BetUS MLB baseball betting odds: Pittsburgh -125, Florida +105, Total 10 (Under -120, Over - Even)
The Florida Marlins (12-7) will go after their fourth straight win on Tuesday night when they go up against the struggling Pittsburgh Pirates (7-12) as the two National League clubs face each other at PNC Park (natural turf) in the Steel City. Game time is 7:10 PM ET.
Right-hander Ricky Nolsaco (1-1, 10.24 ERA) gets the assignment for Florida, while Pittsburgh counters with southpaw Paul Maholm (0-2, 5.28 ERA).
At BetUS Sportsbook, Pittsburgh is listed as a -125 favorite (Florida is +105), with a total of 10 runs (Under is -120, Over is even money). .
Here are some of the MLB Baseball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
(NOTE: These trends may also revert back to the 2007 season)
* FLA has won five of its last seven games
* FLA has won six of its last eight road games
* PITT has lost its last six games
* PITT has played seven of its last eight games OVER the total
* PITT has lost eight of its last 11 home games
* PITT has played seven of its last nine home games OVER the total
In the HEAD-TO-HEAD baseball betting trends:
* FLA has won four of the last five meetings
* Five of the last six meetings have gone OVER the total
* FLA has won five of the last seven meetings as the road team
* PITT has won 12 of the last 18 meetings as the home team
One of the better outings of Ricky Nolsaco's career came in July of 2006 when he shut out the Pirates over 7-1/3 innings, throwing four-hit ball in the process. His results weren't quite as good last May, when Pittsburgh scored five runs (only two of which were earned) in five innings.
This year Nolasco's WHIP ratio is really not that bad (1.44), but he has found himself unusually susceptible to the long ball, giving up six homers in 15-1/3 innings. It has been almost a year since he's stopped anybody.
Paul Maholm was banged around a little by the Marlins in his first start of the season, and it was pretty much all fives - five innings, five hits, five runs, five earned. Of course, it was the fifth of April too, at a time when Florida was getting itself together after a tough opening series against the Mets. In that game, Maholm showed good velocity, striking out nine Marlin hitters.
He's allowing a lot of people to reach base (1.76 WHIP), and because he's not a strikeout pitcher, it behooves him to throw ground balls, but he's getting less groundouts as a percentage of total outs than in the past. That makes more difficult for us to back him, especially considering that at the moment these teams are moving in decidedly different directions - Florida is atop the NL East and has won five of its last seven, while Pittsburgh has now lost six games in a row.
JAY'S PLAY: FLORIDA (+105)
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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com touches all the bases as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)