posted April 18, 2008 at 13:57 in MLB Free Picks
MLB Baseball Betting - Washington at Florida
by Charles Jay
BetUS MLB betting odds: Florida -120, Washington - Even, Total 9.5 (Under -115, Over -105)
The Washington Nationals (4-12) will send one of their better pitchers to the mound on Friday when they take on the Florida Marlins (9-6) in a National League game that is set to begin at 7:10 PM ET at Dolphin Stadium in Miami.
The Nationals will send right-hander Tim Redding (2-1, 2.25 ERA) to the mound, while the Marlins counter with left-hander Andrew Miller (0-2, 11.37 ERA).
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At BetUS Sportsbook, Florida is listed as a -120 favorite (Washington is even money), with a total of 9.5 runs (Under is -115, Over is -105).
Here are some of the MLB betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
(NOTE: These trends may also revert back to the 2007 season)
* WASH has lost 12 of its last 13 games
* WASH has played six of its last seven games UNDER the total
* WASH has lost its last seven road games
* WASH has played four straight road games UNDER the total
* FLA has won six of its last nine games
* FLA has won four of its last six home games
* FLA has played four of its last five games UNDER the total
In the HEAD-TO-HEAD baseball betting trends:
* FLA has won the last five meetings
* FLA has won three of the last four meetings as the home team
* WASH has won seven of the last ten meetings as the road team
* Seven of the last eleven metings in Miami have gone OVER the total
Washington lost a heart-breaker to the Mets last night (3-2 in 14 innings) to bring their current losing streak to three games. It was their 12th setback in the last 13.
Tim Redding was a little shaky against the Braves last time out (April 13), allowing nine base runners in five innings of work, but he directed the Nationals to its only win during a nearly two-week period. In his first two appearances, he gave up one earned run in 11 innings. One of those games was at Nationals Park against this Florida team - a bizarre outing in which he gave up seven hits and seven runs in four innings, with only one of those runs earned.
Andrew Miller's WHIP ratio is a whopping 2.45, and he's already given up 16 runs in 12-2/3 innings. Interestingly enough, he's got a strikeout-to-walk ratio of better than 2-to-1 (15 K's, 7 BB's). he has been hit hard in all three of his starts, surrendering 24 hits.
But does he provide the solution for Washington's offensive woes? The Nats have scored 14 runs in their last seven games, and in 14 innings they had only six hits on Thursday night. There is just no offensive spark, and seemingly nowhere to find it. But it’s not so unusual, since Washington was last in the league in runs scored last season.
We simply couldn't move with them, especially on the road. Let's move with Florida at this short price (-120) in the BetUS Major League baseball betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: FLORIDA (-120)
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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com touches all the bases as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)


