Posted on
4/4/2008 2:31:44 PM
MLB Baseball Betting Trends – Philadelphia Phillies at Cincinnati Reds
By Eric Williams
The Philadelphia Phillies, (1-2), had struggled to score runs in their first two games this season, but got their offense untracked on Thursday, beating the Washington Nationals 8-7 as reliever Jesus Colome walked in reigning NL MVP Jimmy Rollins with the winning run in the bottom of the 10th to help Philadelphia complete a comeback from a 5-0 deficit.
The Cincinnati Reds, (2-1), come into this matchup riding a two-game winning streak in the BetUS Sportsbook after beating the reigning NL West champion Arizona Diamondbacks 3-2 on Thursday as young right-hander Johnny Cueto shut the D-Backs down, striking out ten batters and allowing just one solo homer in seven innings.
"The guys on the bench were saying they haven't seen anything like this in a long time," manager Dusty Baker said. "I guess it's something they've never seen, and there's a lot they still haven't seen from this young man."
Tonight, Philadelphia will start the surprising Kyle Kendrick who was 10-4 last season in 20 starts with 49 strikeouts, 25 walks and an ERA of 3.87.
Reds hurler, Josh Fogg, came to the club as a free agent after reaching the World Series with the Colorado Rockies last season. Fogg went 10-9 last season in 29 starts and one relief appearance for the Rockies, striking out 94 batters and walking 59 with a 4.94 ERA.
In four regular season starts against the Phillies, Fogg is 1-1 with a 5.73 ERA while Kendrick allowed four runs in six innings of an 11-4 home win last June.
Here is a look at tonight’s key trends followed by my MLB Betting Picks.
Key Phillies Trends
The Phillies are 6-1 in their last seven games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
The Phillies are 4-1 in their last five Friday games.
The Phillies are 8-3 in their last eleven road games.
Key Reds Trends
The Reds are 7-2 in their last nine vs. National League East.
The Reds are 5-2 in their last seven Friday games.
The Reds are 5-14 in their last 19 games vs. a starter with a WHIP less than 1.15.
Key Totals Trends
The Under is 4-0 in Phillies last four games vs. a right-handed starter.
The Over is 7-1 in Phillies last eight vs. National League Central.
The Under is 6-2 in Phillies last eight overall.
The Over is 8-1 in Reds last nine games vs. a team with a winning percentage below .400.
The Over is 9-2-1 in Reds last 12 Friday games.
The Over is 11-4 in Reds last 15 during game one of a series.
Key Head-to-Head Trends
The Over is 4-0 in the last four meetings.
The Phillies are 6-1 in the last seven meetings in Cincinnati.
The Phillies are 4-1 in the last five meetings.
Analysis: The Phillies may have the last two National League MVP award winners on their roster, but the Cincinnati Reds are the correct pick to win this contest as they seem to have a new attitude under veteran manager Dusty Baker this season.
MLB Free Picks: Reds 4 Phillies 3
07:10 PM EST MLB Odds
Philadelphia Phillies Kyle Kendrick - R +1½ -200
Cincinnati Reds Josh Fogg - R -1½ +170
Over 10½ -115
Under 10½ -105
National League
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