Posted on
5/14/2008 1:29:19 PM
MLB Baseball Betting – Trends-A-Plenty for Season’s First Quarter
By Eric Williams
After beating the Boston Red Sox, (24-18, 17-25 RL) 5-4 on Tuesday to pick up their fourth online betting win in their last five games in the BetUS Sportsbook, the Baltimore Orioles, (20-19, 22-17 RL) come into this afternoon’s sports betting matchup looking to double their pleasure by beating the Sox again.
The Orioles will hand the ball to one of their most consistent pitchers this season in towering 6-9 right-hander Daniel Cabrera, (3-1, 3.54 ERA).
After going just 9-18 with a 5.55 ERA last season while leading the American League in losses (18), walks (108) and runs allowed (133), Cabrera has bounced back in a big way for Baltimore, particularly after the club traded staff ace Erik Bedard this past offseason.
The Orioles have gone a spectacular 6-1 in Cabrera’s eight starts, one of which they picked up in his last start after Cabrera limited the Kansas City Royals to one run on a miniscule three hits in tossing a complete game.
"In previous times, he'd start to spin out of control and he doesn't do it any more. He keeps his focus," Orioles manager Dave Trembley said. "He keeps his poise. He gets himself back in his rhythm. He goes back to pitching. He's not a thrower. That's the big difference."
Cabrera will be facing a Boston Red Sox team he has failed to beat in seven career online betting starts, posting a high 7.44 ERA while walking29 batters in 32 2/3 innings.
The Red Sox, losers of three straight sports betting contests, will turn to right-hander Jon Lester, (2-2, 4.06) who is coming off a poor start in his last outing after allowing five runs, (three earned) on eight hits in 5 1/3 innings in Friday’s 7-6 loss to the Minnesota Twins.
Lester has won all three of his career starts against Baltimore while putting up a respectable 3.00 ERA in those contests.
Boston will be without manager Terry Francona due to the death of his brother while the Red Sox also lost two players in Tuesday’s loss.
Outfielder J.D. Drew sprained his left wrist diving for a line drive while center fielder Coco Crisp left yesterday’s game to find some ‘Pepto’ with an upset stomach.
Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my analysis and MLB Gambling Free Picks.
The Red Sox are 8-1 in Lester’s last nine starts vs. American League East.
The Red Sox are 8-1 in Lester’s last nine starts with four days of rest.
The Orioles are 5-1 in Cabrera’s last six starts on grass.
The Orioles are 4-1 in Cabrera’s last five starts as an underdog.
The Under is 5-0 in Lester’s last five starts during game two of a series.
The Under is 4-0 in Cabrera’s last four starts with the total set at 9.0-10.5.
The Orioles are 0-5 in Cabrera’s last five home starts vs. Red Sox.
The Orioles are 0-7 in Cabrera’s last seven starts vs. Red Sox.
Analysis: Maybe it’s me, but I sat Baltimore’s Daniel Cabrera is long overdue for his first career win against the Red Sox and should get it as he is a totally different pitcher than he was in the past. Take the surprising Baltimore Orioles to eke out another win tonight behind the blossoming Cabrera.
MLB Free Picks: Orioles 5 Red Sox 3
03:05 PM EST MLB Odds
Boston Red Sox
Jon Lester - L -1½ +125
Baltimore Orioles
Daniel Cabrera - R +1½ -145
Over 9 -115
Under 9 -105
American League
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