Posted on 4/3/2008 2:16:07 PM

MLB Baseball Betting - Toronto Blue Jays vs. New York Yankees

By D.S Williamson

This is an incredibly difficult game to handicap as both the Blue Jays and the Yankees come into this game without one of their top pitchers. Heck, neither Phil Hughes for the Yankees nor Dustin McGowan for the Blue Jays figures to have a good game.

Last year Hughes went 1 and 1 against the Blue Jays in three starts. His ERA was 4.7. What was really bad about it is that at home Hughes gave up seven runs to the Jays in only 9 1-3 innings. That’s not very good. Of course, Toronto pitcher Dustin McGowan wasn’t much more successful versus the Yankees. McGowan finished 2 and 2 with a 5.25 ERA in five starts versus the Yankees last year. The bad news about McGowan is that he gave up 10 runs, 9 hits, and 9 walks, in his final two games against the Yanks last year.

Let’s take a look at the BetUS wagering lines.

Toronto Blue Jays

Dustin McGowan – R + 1 ½ - 140 Over 9 ½ + 110

New York Yankees

Phil Hughes – R - 1 ½ + 125 Under 9 ½ - 130

The Yanks won the first game in this series by one run. In that game only five runs were scored. In the second game of this series the Blue Jays beat the Yankees by a score of 5 to 2. The question in this game is which pitcher is going to come with his “A” game.

Phil Hughes actually isn’t a bad pitcher. Last year he was bad against the Blue Jays, but he also went 3 and 0 with an ERA of 2.73 in five starts in September. Perhaps, the September form that Hughes showed is what we should concentrate on in this game.

Dustin McGowan is suffering from flu-like symptoms. He should be able to pitch this game, but there’s no telling what effect those flu-like symptoms will have on the guy. The Yankees are at home in this one. That means that they are supposed to win.

Without a doubt, there is no way to take the 1 ½ runs on McGowan in this game. That leaves us to decide if Hughes is worth the wager at - 1 ½ runs or is this thing going over. The BetUS under at – 130 doesn’t make sense. Both of these pitchers had 4.0 or higher ERAs last year. So, the over is a definite possibility, but the Yankees have only scored 4 runs in two games this season. Yes, the Jays have scored 7, but that’s not enough for me to call this game over.

No, the only real wager in this game is Phil Hughes. If he can translate that September 2007 form o his first start of the year, the Yankees bats should come around. The odds say ride Phil Hughes at + 125. That’s what I’m going to do.

The BetUS MLB Betting line is New York Yankees - Phil Hughes – 1 ½ + 125 against the Toronto Blue Jays at home.

I’ll be betting that Hughes’s late season surge last year wasn’t a mirage and that the Yankee bats will start taking some of those balls out of the park.

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