Posted on
4/17/2008 4:13:37 PM
MLB Baseball Betting Picks - Atlanta at Florida
By Charles Jay
BetUS MLB betting odds: Atlanta -160, Florida +140, Total 9 (-110 each way)
The Atlanta Braves (5-9) look to avoid the three-game sweep on Thursday night when they face off against the first-place Florida Marlins in national League action that is scheduled to get underway at 7:10 PM ET at Dolphin Stadium in Miami.
John Smoltz (2-0, 0.82 ERA) will pitch for Atlanta, while youngster Ricky Nolasco (1-0, 4.22 ERA) takes the mound for Florida, in what is a matchup[ of right-handers.
At BetUS Sportsbook, Atlanta is listed as a -160 favorite (Florida is +140), with a total of nine runs (lay -110 each way).
Here are some of the MLB betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
(NOTE: These trends may also revert back to the 2007 season)
* ATL has lost its last three games
* ATL has lost six of its last eight games
* ATL has played six of its last eight games UNDER the total
* ATL has played five of its last seven road games UNDER the total
* ATL has lost nine of its last 11 road games
* ATL has lost seven of 11 games as a favorite
* FLA has won six of its last eight games
* FLA has won four of its last five home games
* FLA has played four of its last six games UNDER the total
* FLA has played four of its last six home games OVER the total
In the HEAD-TO-HEAD baseball betting trends:
* ATL has won four of the last six meetings
* FLA has won four of the last six meetings as the home team
* Three of the last four meetings have gone UNDER the total
* Five of the last seven meetings in Miami have gone OVER the total
Well, it doesn't quite look like the Florida Marlins are going to run away with things in the National League East, but they are on top with a game and a half lead over the Mets. Meanwhile, Atlanta, a team many people thought might challenge New York and Philadelphia in the division race, is in the doldrums at 5-9, having lost to the marlins twice in a row, in addition to the Nationals, providing Washington with its only win in the last 12.
Enter John Smoltz to the rescue. Smoltz hasn't gone especially long in either of his two starts, but he's won them both, allowing only seven hits and a run in eleven total innings, with a 1.00 WHIP. He's showing some signs that he can improve on last year's performance, when he scored a 3.11 ERA and 14-8 record, finishing sixth in the Cy Young voting. Since leaving the bullpen and going back to the starting rotation, Smoltz has compiled a 46-24 record, much better than his overall .590 career percentage, and for Braves teams that were not as formidable as those he had previously pitched for.
Ricky Nolasco had a very credible rookie season (11-11, 4.82 ERA) and during that stint he made four starts against the Braves and gave up just five runs in 22-2/3 innings. However, he developed elbow problems last year and surrendered five runs in five innings in his only start thus far in the young season. So there is considerable question as to how long he can go and maintain a level of quality.
Smoltz has the ability to play "shutdown" with the Florida lineup and we believe he's not going to let the Braves get swept here. Off to such a hot start, we can feel relatively comfortable laying the -160 with him in the BetUS Major League Baseball betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: ATLANTA (-160)
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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com touches all the bases as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)