Posted on 4/18/2008 4:03:33 PM

MLB Baseball Betting Odds – Reds Host Brewers After Rough Road Trip

By Eric Williams

Though the Cincinnati Reds, (7-9, 8-7 O/U), enter tonight’s matchup against the visiting Milwaukee Brewers, (9-6, 7-7-1 O/U) coming off an emphatic 9-2 win over the Chicago Cubs on Thursday that snapped a five-game losing streak in the BetUS Sportsbook, the Reds went just 3-6 on their recent nine-game road trip and are looking to string together some wins, starting tonight against the Brewers.

However, Cincinnati will have its work cut out against Brewers staff ace Ben Sheets, ((2-0, 1.17 ERA) who has been overpowering in each of his three starts this season including his last performance when he beat Johan Santana and the New York Mets last Saturday, limiting the Mets to just three runs on five hits in 7 2/3 innings.

Sheets has added a changeup to his pitching repertoire, improving his overall game.

"If you've got three pitches - a fastball, curve and change - it's really tough on hitters," manager Ned Yost said. "They don't know what's coming. Somebody as good as Benny, trying to develop a new pitch gives him another weapon."

The Reds will counter with veteran starter Bronson Arroyo (0-1, 5.17) who has not looked good so far in the early going, not lasting past the sixth inning in any start this season. Arroyo allowed three runs in five innings of Cincy's 4-3 loss to Pittsburgh on Saturday, but did not receive a decision.

"Nothing is clicking yet. You feel like you're running uphill a bit," Arroyo told the Reds' official team Web site.

Here is a look at tonight’s key trends, followed by my analysis and MLB Betting Picks.

The Brewers are 5-0 in Sheets' last 5 road starts.

The Brewers are 4-0 in Sheets' last 4 starts with 5 days of rest.

The Reds are 7-3 in Arroyos last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record.

The Over is 5-0 in Sheets' last 5 starts as a road favorite.

The Over is 5-1 in Sheets' last 6 starts vs. a team with a losing record.

The Under is 5-0 in Arroyos last 5 starts with 5 days of rest.

The Over is 6-1 in Arroyos last 7 home starts with the total set at 7.0-8.5.

The Over is 6-0 in Sheets' last 6 road starts vs. Reds.

The Brewers are 5-1 in Sheets' last 6 road starts vs. Reds.

The Under is 4-1 in the last 5 meetings.

Analysis: The Reds may be playing at home in this contest, but I fully expect Sheets to handcuff them while the Brewers powerful batting order rocks Arroyo and hands him another loss.

MLB Free Picks: Brewers 6 Reds 3

07:10 PM EST MLB Odds

Milwaukee Brewers

Ben Sheets - R -1½ +115

Cincinnati Reds

Bronson Arroyo - R +1½ -135

Over 8½ -110

Under 8½ -110

National League

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