Posted on
5/2/2008 3:51:41 PM
MLB Baseball Betting - Milwaukee at Houston
By Charles Jay
BetUS MLB betting odds: Houston -150, Milwaukee +130; Total 9 (Under -125, Over +105)
The Milwaukee Brewers (16-12) look to edge up toward the top of the division as they travel to the Lone Star State to take on the Houston Astros (13-16) in a game between National League Central division clubs that is set to start at 8:05 PM ET at Minute Maid Park (natural grass) in Houston.
Roy Oswalt (2-3, 5.75 ERA) will take the mound for Houston, while Milwaukee counters with Carlos Villanueva (1-2, 4.66 ERA) in a battle of right-handers.
At BetUS Sportsbook, Houston is listed as a -150 favorite (Milwaukee is +130), with a total of nine runs (the Under is -125, with the Over at +105).
Here are some of the MLB Baseball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
(NOTE: These trends may also revert back to the 2007 season)
* MIL has played five of its last seven games UNDER the total
* MIL has won five of its last seven road games
* MIL has played five of its last seven road games UNDER the total
* HOU has lost four of its last five games
* HOU has played six of its last seven games UNDER the total
* HOU has won five of its last seven home games
* HOU has played four of its last five home games OVER the total
In the HEAD-TO-HEAD baseball betting trends:
* MIL has won four of the last five meetings
* MIL has won five of the last seven meetings as the road team
* Five of the last eight meetings have gone OVER the total
* Three of the last five meetings in Houston have gone OVER the total
The Brewers got a big emotional boost with their win yesterday, scoring three runs in the ninth to beat the Cubs. Kerry Wood, the former phenom who is now trying to make the transition to being a closer, was the guy they victimized. Ryan Braun is swinging the hot bat for Milwaukee, with seven RBI's in the three-game series against Chicago.
Carlos Villanueva sometimes has bouts with control. Thus far he has allowed 11 free passes in 29 innings. But he's imploded only in an April 16 start against St. Louis, when he failed to finish the fifth innings before yielding five runs and ten base runners. He had a solid start against the Astros last September, giving up just one run in six innings.
Roy Oswalt, who has been in the top five of the Cy Young voting five times, has a 3.14 career ERA, but he has gotten off to an extremely slow start. His 5.75 ERA and 1.528 WHIP are career highs, and he's only throwing 60% first-pitch strikes. But his last few efforts have been very encouraging, as his ERA has been 3.15. And Oswalt was extremely effective at home for the Astros last year -he had a 1.91 ERA and won nine of ten decisions.
Maybe better days are ahead for Houston, which is coming home after an eight-game road trip. The bats may have picked up as well, with 13 runs in the last two. We'll issue a mild recommendation on the Astros and their ace pitcher at -150 in the BetUS Major League baseball betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: HOUSTON (-150)
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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com touches all the bases as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)