Posted on
5/8/2008 4:51:07 PM
MLB Baseball Betting - Milwaukee at Florida
By Charles Jay
BetUS MLB baseball betting odds: Pick'em (-110 each way); Total 9.5 (Under -115, Over -105)
The Milwaukee Brewers (16-17), struggling a bit with scoring runs of late, will wind up their three-game series with the Florida Marlins (19-14) on Thursday night when the two National League teams tangle in online sports betting action at 7:10 PM ET at Dolphin Stadium (natural turf) in Miami.
Right-hander Carlos Villanueva (1-3, 5.56 ERA), who got shelled in his last outing, will take the hill for Milwaukee, while the big southpaw Mark Hendrickson (5-1, 3.71 ERA), who hasn't lost since Opening Day, gets the start for the Marlins.
At BetUS Sportsbook, the game is listed as a Pick'em (-110 each way), with a total of 9.5 runs (the Under is -115, while the Over is -105).
Here are some of the MLB Baseball betting trends as they relate to this matchup:
* MIL has lost its last five games
* MIL has played four of its last six games UNDER the total
* MIL has played 13 of its last 19 games UNDER the total
* MIL has lost six of its last seven road games
* FLA has won four of its last five games
* FLA has played five of its last eight games OVER the total
* FLA has played five of its last eight home games OVER the total
In the HEAD-TO-HEAD MLB betting trends:
* FLA has won 14 of the last 20 meetings
* Eleven of the last 12 meetings have gone UNDER the total
* FLA has won nine of the last 11 meetings as the home team
* The last seven meetings in Miami have gone UNDER the total
Seventeen of the 41 hits Carlos Villanueva has allowed this season have gone for extra bases, and eight of them have been home runs. As a result, the righty is yielding a .540 slugging percentage to opponents. More batters have hit the ball in the air (46) than on the ground (33) against him. Villanueva started against Florida at Miller Park on April 26, giving up two runs in six innings, striking out five. Control is a key part of his game; he has not walked anyone in his last two starts.
Mark Hendrickson has been a pleasant surprise, to say the least, for Florida. The tall lefty with the basketball background has made every start a solid one after giving up six runs in five innings in an opening-day loss to the Mets. In fact, since then, his ERA is just 2.79 and his WHIP ratio is 1.06.
The Marlins, who are right at the top of the National League East, have gotten strong starting performances only from Hendrickson and Scott Olsen, and have been sustaining success with power; they are second in the NL in home runs and rank ninth in the majors with a .263 average. Mike Jacobs, Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla have combined for 24 of the team's round-trippers. Milwaukee, with a .241 average, which is 25th in the majors, has an unusual sparkplug - second baseman Rickie Weeks, who is batting .192, yet is sixth in all of baseball in runs scored, with 28 going into Wednesday's action.
In this pick'em situation, we'll go with the home team that has the more effective pitcher on the mound. That's the Florida Marlins, at -110 in the BetUS Major League Baseball betting odds.
JAY'S PLAY: FLORIDA (-110)
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(Charles Jay of http://www.eBookies.com touches all the bases as a regular contributor to the BetUS Locker Room)